Ryan Noonan: 3 Week 1 NFL Player Props I'm Betting

Sep 09, 2021

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You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.

Without polling all of our betting subscribers here at 4for4, I'm fairly confident the majority of you play some form of fantasy football, as well. And if you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. You put in the necessary time and effort it takes to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I don't play many traditional redraft leagues these days, but I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.

There are similarities prop betting has with traditional markets like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, and this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need to have better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 1-800-number tout, but I believe our team's process is sound and that we can exploit this market each and every week of the season. You might not have access to the bet/sportsbook that's listed, but feel free to shoot me a message in Discord if you want to discuss a similar wager or talk through a play. Let's dig in.

More Week 1 Player Pros: Sam Hoppen | Connor Allen