4for4 Betting Recap: Week 9
Welcome to the 4for4 football gambling recap! My name is Dan Rivera and I am in charge of tracking bets from Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, Sam Hoppen, Greg Smith, Anthony Stalter and TJ Calkins. Each week, I track their bets and provide feedback after the Monday Night Football game ends. If you have not found it, I track them all here in this 4for4 Tracker. Make sure you switch to the right person and sport.
When you look at anyone in the 2021 NFL, you will see some yellow blocks. There are two points you need to know:
- You will see a weekly tracker; this just lets you look at anyone on any given week. This is what I like to call the micro tracker.
- The big yellow box has most of the plays broken down by position, prop type, totals, spreads, etc. The total units won or lost will differ from this deep dive version because certain plays didn’t fit into the deep dive. For example, Ryan Noonan bet the Patriots to make the playoffs. It doesn’t fit into any of the weekly bets during the NFL season.
Why do I do this? When tracking NFL bets, 99% of all bets anyone makes are working juice (meaning you have to lay more money down than you would win). This tracker is far superior compared to other trackers. Other trackers don’t have bets broken down by type, it is just simply a tracker. To me, that isn’t helpful. I want the data (picks) to tell a story so I can help whoever is making the picks win more. With the juice, you are better off avoiding losers than you are winning. My goal is to help anyone I track to avoid losers or have them attack successful areas. When you look at the deep dive table, be careful if one area looks good or bad. The sample size is key to that deep dive table and a small sample can get very skewed in one direction.
Ninety-nine percent of all plays tracked are to win 1 unit or 0.5 units. You will get maybe one, max two plays from any one bet to win more than 1 unit.
With that being said, let's look at Week 9!
Skewed Stats Alert: Connor, Ryan and Sam all hit a 37-1 bet in Week 8, skewing their props up for the year. The weekly and year-to-date records will include it but the analysis was removed since it carried so much of them that week. All three of them risked 0.25 units to win 9.25 units. The prop was Elijah Mitchell to lead the league in rushing yards for Sunday games only.
Ryan Noonan
Week 9: 5-11, 31.25%, -7.03 units
YTD: 95-77 55.23%, 23.3 units
Dan’s Analysis: Ryan suffered his first losing week since Week 3. This was by far his worse week I have tracked for him. The ups in gambling are fun but the downs are awful. I am not remotely worried about Ryan and his week from hell. I have tracked quite a few people and groups since the summer of 2020 and all of them have the same qualities when looking at results. They all have some fantastic weeks and other weeks from hell. It comes with the gambling territory. The other weeks are good/bad or some profit or some losses and these groups largely even out and you just hope you win more than you lose.
Ryan continues to do well with WR props, moving to 33-18 (64.71%), for the year. He started to see his team totals regress hard after starting 80% for the year. Nothing surprising here, as I expected his team totals to regress and his RB to regress positively for the year.
Connor Allen
Week 9: 10-1, 90.91%, 10.05 units
YTD: 83-68, 54.97%, 19.37 units
Dan’s Analysis: I said last week Connor had his worse gambling week last week outside of his Elijah Mitchell longshot bet. Connor caught fire this week, though, as this was his best week ever (outside of Week 14 last year when he won 10.97 units) and only the second time he's eclipsed 10+ units in a week.
The downside is weeks this like are rare and not remotely sustainable. You take them when you get them. For the deep dive, Connor continues to do well on QB and WR props. He is about 60% for both groups and at 68% for WR props. Going 68% on certain props isn’t sustainable and I expect that category to regress, just as I expect his RB props to regress positively.
Sam Hoppen
Week 9: 3-1, 75%, 1.86 units
YTD: 26-18, 59.09%, 15.86 units
Dan’s Analysis: I am going to sound like a broken record on Sam, but he is tough to give a deep dive on because of the small sample size. I don’t encourage him, or anyone, to bet large volume if that isn’t your thing just because you want some results. That spells long-term disaster and I expect Sam to slowly grind it out.
A good week from Sam. Not much from him for the week but he officially has 44 plays for the year and I can slowly start to analyze him for deeper dives. Sam sits at 8-3 on QB props and 8-6 on RB props!
Greg Smith
Week 9: 4-3, 57.14%, 0.77 units
YTD: 46-39, 54.12%, 4.02 units
Dan’s Analysis: Another guy I will sound like a broken record on, Greg is working in some of the most efficient gambling markets out there. What I mean is that a half-point to a full point is the difference between having a winning weekend versus a losing weekend. With totals, you will see 1- or 2-point swings, but both of these markets are by far the hardest to win in the long term. For example, in Week 3, Greg had such bad beats on Raiders -3.5 and under 45.5. If the Raiders do their job and don’t allow the Dolphins to score in the end, he goes 4-4 instead of 2-6. That series had a net swing of 4.2 units that cost him 2.2 units.
Depending on when you bet with Greg, his Week 9 resulted in a small profit but he did say stay away/get out of the Texans-Dolphins' over once Tua Tagovialoa was ruled out. Most of you who tailed this, or all of you, avoided this loss. This was stated in the article he wrote and on Discord. After 9 weeks, Greg is 23-18 against the spread (ATS) for 56.1%. Anything above 52.38% is profit working with -110 lines (you take 110/210 to get 52.38%). Professionals make a great living going 55%+ ATS and Greg has been money.
Anthony Stalter
Week 9: 2-1, 66.67%, 0.9 units
YTD: 17-10, 62.96%, 6.9 units
TJ Calkins
Week 8: 2-1, 66.67%, 0.9 units
YTD: 8-15, 34.78%, -8.5 units
Dan’s Analysis: Both Anthony and TJ suffer from small sample sizes. I just wanted them in the article as the entire 4for4 crew for NFL is being tracked by me. The record will speak for both because deep-diving them wouldn't yield much analysis.
Futures Bets Update (Connor & Ryan)
Disclaimer: These bets can have wild swings and are hard to judge. I am writing about the ones I feel more confident in that look good or bad. These won’t be officially graded until Week 17 as most books require 17 games to be played (keywords: 17 games played). Week 17 games a lot of these bets will be settled but you won’t be paid out until after Week 18. Unless the NFL cancels games, all bets are actionable.
Ryan's Futures
Dan’s Analysis: I feel very confident saying Washington to win their division is dead. Another pick on life support is Browns to win the division—it’s a very competitive division and the Browns can’t afford any mistakes.
The other bets look really good so far after 9 weeks and all the picks look like solid winners to me or I strongly lean that way as of this writing. Ryan better hope Breshad Perriman takes a snap this year because books require players to take one snap to count for bets, as and this is an easy under bet that will cash.
Connor’s Futures
Dan’s Analysis: Let’s start with the bad, Connor has three Washington team bets involving them to win division or games that are dead. Austin Ekeler under six touchdowns is also dead because he currently has five and won’t cash unless Ekeler misses the rest of the season due to injury or stops scoring touchdowns. Deebo Samuel under 850.5 yards is also dead. Some other bets that don’t look so good are Raiders under 7.5 wins, Sam Darnold over 21 passing touchdowns, Marquise Brown under 60.5 receptions and Kadarius Toney under 505.5 yards.
On the flip side, Texans under four wins, Lions under five wins and Emmanuel Sanders over 660.5 yards all look like winners. His other bets could go either way and I will re-check them after Week 13. My guess is this area for Connor ends up being close to break-even.
