Week 12 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Nov 26, 2021

Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it does get easier to navigate as the season moves along. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. I feel more confident using in-season data to make decisions, but I try not to overreact since the sample of data is so small. For now, we have to use what we have. I update this sheet every Wednesday afternoon, capturing the situation-neutral stats I believe matter more than most.

Whenever possible, but especially early in the season, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points-against. Our scheduled-adjust fantasy points allowed tool (aFPA) is a perfect example of this. It's not a relevant metric in the context of my analysis here, but the point is, it tells a more useful truth than its more commonly used counterparts.

In this space, I'll continue to focus on what I think is the biggest inefficiency in the market—individual team totals.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.