Fantasy Football Weather Report: Week 15

Chaos. That’s all this week is. Just pure chaos. The start of the playoffs brings a heightened sense of urgency in analysis and corresponding roster moves. But adding in multiple COVID-19 outbreaks ratchets things up past the max. The news should take precedence over the forecast, and, luckily, everything looks clear as of Friday.

Week 14 Recap

Nothing notable from last week. Luckily, all of the situations I laid out in the report unfolded as expected. One small thing to note, though.

Patrick Mahomes did have a 5.9 passing aDOT, and the wind in Kansas City was 19 mph at kickoff. However, I’m not ready to attribute any change in his passing to the weather. First off, windspeeds steadily dropped throughout the game and were 13 mph by its end. But Mahomes still maintained a 4% pass rate over expectation (PROE) and a 50.0% red-zone passing rate in a game that started with a fumble-six. The increased use of running backs in the passing game likely explains Mahomes’ drop in passing depth (25.0% target share between both running backs). Regardless, there wasn’t any shift in team intent despite the winds.

Games to Monitor

BLUF: I don’t expect the weather to impact any of these games. Injuries and COVID-19 concerns should be, and are, the main concern heading into the weekend. I’ll have updates Saturday and Sunday before kickoff, but player-specific news should be our focus.

Games Impacted by Wind

Las Vegas Raiders (20.75-point implied total) @ Cleveland Browns (16.25)

New Orleans Saints (18) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28.5)

Washington Football Team (17.25) @ Philadelphia Eagles (26.75)

I don’t even know if the game will be played at this point. Cleveland has 20 players out with their stars asking questions about the league’s commitment to player safety. Assuming it’s still played, wind speed isn’t a concern, but its direction may be.

Winds from the NNW will cause a cross breeze, but the stadium’s height (171 feet) has kept the winds at bay in previous games. Nick Mullens hasn’t played enough games to draw any meaningful conclusions. Carr has two games in similar conditions (Week 13 of 2019 and Week 13 of 2020) without any significant shift in team intent relative to their defensive opponent. Fantasy managers likely aren’t looking to this game for fantasy points anyway, but the windspeed won’t play a factor unless it increases. The Buccaneers are in a similar spot.

Raymond James Stadium is taller than Cleveland’s stadium, and the wind will be weaker. The flow will come across the stadium but will drop to 12 mph by the second half. Last season, Brady played in two games with 17-mph winds and averaged 8.3 air yards per attempt with a 72.7% neutral pass rate. Hill and the Saints have a -5% PROE since he took over as the starter. The conditions won’t affect how either team approaches the match. Finally, let’s look at Philadelphia.

I only include this game to be thorough. The forecast shows a max wind speed of 14 mph, but I’d like to be prepared if it crosses over 15. The primary component of the flow is in the direction of the stadium, lessening the chance of a crosswind. Regardless, this is another matchup dominated by injured players or those on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Washington’s list of players dealing with ailments takes up about half of a page, and the Eagles’ quarterbacks are splitting the first-team reps. Both offenses are bottom-10 in PROE, which would limit any impact from the weather anyway.

Games Impacted by Rain

Houston Texans (17.25-point implied total) at Jacksonville Jaguars (22.25)

New York Jets (15.75) at Miami Dolphins (25.25)

I’ll group these two, but you know what's coming next if you saw the precip rate. There’s no concern here. The rain will come in the early morning in Miami (Opa-Locka) but at a max speed of 0.01 inches per hour. Both fields use a grass/sod combo, but surface conditions won’t degrade with this rainfall. At worst, the precip in Jacksonville may cause a slip or fumble, but both teams are liable for chaotic events anyway.