NFL Week 16 Lookahead Lines Report

Trying to predict where each game's line is going to re-open isn't complicated, but it's invaluable. Week 15's top play, the Packers, gets a boost from Lamar Jackson's ankle injury, but just like they say in golf, "there's no picture on the scorecard." We'll take the early value any way we can get it.

In a normal year, betting on a side within 48 hours of kick-off is a long-term losing play for 99% of casual bettors. This season, and especially this month, my desire and edge in getting down early are slowly diminishing. I believe the tenants of betting lookahead lines are strong, but in the current climate, you have to be willing to accept the added layer of variance COVID-19 brings.

With that said, I still believe the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, which is an indication the book feels they've priced the game correctly. Unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five-to-six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I'll be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window provides a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers prior to the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, which is easier to do once you know what the opening number was.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. At times, it ends up being the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 15 evaluation of the team and market, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 16.

For reference, I'll be using the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. You can use the game tiles below to find the best number, and the spread listed is based on the home team:

Week 16 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these quirks are already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.

49ers @ Titans (-1)

While you and yours sip eggnog and wait for the FedEx guy to deliver your Jelly of The Month subscription, we'll have NFL football to watch on Thursday night! I want to short the Titans down the stretch. They're going to the playoffs, but I don't believe this current version is a playoff team. A.J. Brown may be back for this one, but the 49ers are firing on all cylinders right now and I'll look to back them anywhere below -3.

Browns @ Packers (-6.5)

The Browns have had a rough week. They'll likely be full strength for this Christmas Day matchup against the Packers, but their version of full strength shouldn't frighten anyone right now. The half-point is subtle, but I think an early move here at 6.5 is the play because this likely moves to, and possibly through, seven.

Colts @ Cardinals (-4)

The Christmas nightcap is a fun one, with playoff implications at stake for both clubs. The Colts are a sneaky-bad matchup for the Cardinals. Arizona's defense has exceeded expectations this season, but mostly as it pertains to slowing down passing attacks. They've allowed the highest rate of explosive rushes on the season and fall in the bottom half of most meaningful rushing defense metrics. That's bad news with Jonathan Taylor coming to town. I don't think acting early is the play here, though. The Cardinals are likely big Week 15 winners against the Lions, and the Colts are in a coin-flip spot against Patriots. A Colts loss here could move this closer to six, and I'd happily take the points. Watch this space.

Rams @ Vikings (+3.5)

When looking at the bottom half of the NFC playoff picture, the Vikings jump out as the most talented team in a crowded room. Unfortunately, they just can't seem to put it together for a full 60 minutes consistently. All but one of their games this season have been decided by one score, increasing the anxiety of Vikings fans across the country while making them one of the most fun teams to watch each and every week. They're like the moron that passes you on the highway at 90 mph, weaving in and out of traffic. You have to track him for as long as possible because it's wild to watch, but you know he's going to inevitably crash, and you just have to hope he doesn't hurt anyone along the way. That's the Vikings every week. When Minnesota is a home dog against a good team, we need to take them seriously.

Bills @ Patriots (-2)

This is the best time of the year for football. For all intents and purposes, this is a playoff game. The outcome will go a long way in determining playoff seeding for the AFC, and the weather robbed us of this matchup the last time. Hopefully, the weather cooperates, and we can get a true sense of who these two teams are in Week 16. Regardless of what happens in Week 15, I doubt this gets to -3, so there's no need to act early.

Jaguars @ Jets (-1)

I think Jacksonville gets a nice post-Urban Meyer bump in Week 15, but can that carry over to Week 16? Truthfully, both teams should be trying to compete while also not trying to win, but we know that's not how this works. Robert Saleh doesn't strike me as a guy that's willing to passively tank, so this should be a terrible, yet competitive football game.

Ravens @ Bengals (-2.5)

This is another Week 16 playoff game. The Bengals' signature moment this season was their Week 7 shellacking of the Ravens in Baltimore. We didn't know how serious to take them at the time because they had beaten up on lesser opponents, but they got our attention after that win. Now, both clubs are reeling a bit, desperately in need of some positive momentum heading into the home stretch. With Lamar Jackson's status for Week 15's matchup against the Packers still up in the air as of this writing, it's possible that a Bengals road win in Denver could move this to -3 if Baltimore gets clobbered at home by Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. If you're looking to back the Bengals, -2.5 could be the best of the number.

Football Team @ Dallas (-9)

Since Week 9, 37 quarterbacks have taken 100 or more snaps. Dak Prescott ranks 32nd out of the 37 in rbsdm.com's composite EPA+Completion% over expectation metric and 33rd in success rate. He just hasn't been the same since coming back from the calf injury, and it's possible the shoulder injury from the preseason is also bothering him. Clearly, something is off. I want this to be a bounce-back spot for the Cowboys, who are back home for the first time since Thanksgiving, but they need to beat the Giants convincingly for me to confidently back them here.

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