Game Flowbotics: Week 18 Picks Against the Spread

Jan 06, 2022

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

In previous seasons, I’d typically spend my Week 18 intro with a rough accounting of which teams were motivated to win. Thankfully, Jen Eakins has already done that for us this year. Check out her article for the scoop on which teams really need to win, which kinda-sorta want to win and which have no incentive to win.

With that heavy lifting out of the way, we can move directly into my Game Flowbotics picks against the spread. As usual, the Flowbotics spreadsheet is linked below, and it shows pace and efficiency data from Football Outsiders for each matchup on the slate. Before we get to those stats and my best bets for this week, let’s review how last week went.

Accountability

Last week, I went 3-2 with my picks for a gain of 0.8 units. Year to date, my record is 65-56-1 (53.7%) and I’m up 6.08 units overall. The Chiefs blew their game against the Bengals, cost themselves pole position for a bye in the playoffs and cost me 1.1 units. There are many universes where Kansas City could have covered the five-point spread, but apparently not this one. My other loss last week was picking the over on 51 total points for Arizona at Dallas. One more touchdown from either team would have sealed it, but the bad version of the Cowboys' offense showed up and cost me another 1.1 units.

On the bright side, I had the Cardinals pegged as live underdogs (+5.5). Getting the spread right but the total wrong on that game is a trend Dan Rivera has noted for my picks in his weekly betting recaps. On one hand, it makes me want to stop picking totals. On the other hand, I’ve had success picking them in past seasons, so I don’t necessarily want to close off that avenue to potential best bets based solely on this season’s performance to date. Scroll on to see how many over/unders (if any) I decide to hit in Week 18.