Game Flowbotics: Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Sep 15, 2021

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Opening week is in the books! Despite how thankful we are to finally have information from regular-season games, we’re also bracing ourselves for the rollercoaster ride to continue, ready to gather more data. To help contextualize team performances and anticipate how the ride might dip or climb through the NFL schedule, I’m publishing my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet each week, which gathers betting lines plus efficiency and pace data from Football Outsiders. In these weekly articles, I’ll analyze the matchup stats and lay out how I plan to attack the slate's against the spread and over/under betting lines.

Accountability

I went 8-3 with my picks last week for a gain of 3.25 units. My most tilting loss was Over 52 for Arizona at Tennessee. Both teams played up-tempo last season, and both figure to have solid, if not great, offenses again this season. They got to a total of 51 points through three quarters, and I figured the over was in the bag. Of course, neither team scored again. As the kids say, you hate to see it.

My other misses were both in the Monday Night Football matchup between Baltimore and Las Vegas, where I had the Ravens (-4) and the under (51). The way the Raiders’ defense was playing early in the game, I figured the under was a lock, even if the Ravens couldn’t cover (which they didn’t). Unfortunately for me and my bets, Baltimore got worn down and/or sloppy in the fourth quarter, started ceding touchdowns to Vegas and had to fire back with their offense. Daniel Carlson’s last-second field goal in regulation put the total over 51, killing my under bet before the game even got to overtime.

All in all, it was a humbling finish to an otherwise great week for my picks, and it served as a good reminder to beware of road favorites. Furthermore, Baltimore’s unraveling felt like evidence that these early games in the regular season will often act as an extended preseason. We’ll learn a lot more about every team as their players get into true game shape (both physically and mentally) over the next couple of weeks.