Game Flowbotics: Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Sep 22, 2021

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As you’ll see in the accountability section below, last week was a rough one for my picks. Thankfully, though, we’re one step closer to a larger sample of in-season data to work with. Week 3 should help us triangulate a better understanding of team strengths and weaknesses after some Jekyll-and-Hyde performances from a lot of franchises across the first two games.

Once again, I’m publishing my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet for the current slate. It gathers betting lines plus efficiency and pace data from Football Outsiders. In these weekly articles, I’ll analyze the matchup stats and lay out how I plan to attack the slate's against-the-spread and over/under betting lines.

Accountability

I went 3-7 with my picks last week for a loss of 4.81 units. Year to date, my record is 11-10 and I’m down 1.55 units. Woof, talk about a rude awakening. In a lot of cases, I overrated what we saw in the season’s opening week and didn’t give enough consideration to expectations from the preseason relative to first-game variance. The early weeks act as an extended preseason for a lot of teams, I lost sight of that, and I paid the price with a bunch of poor picks.