Game Flowbotics: Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

Sep 29, 2021

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The firehose of data points from the regular season has been pumping full power for three weeks. We’ve been drinking from it as much as possible without blasting our faces off, and now, we know things. That doesn’t mean we know it all—far from it—but we can start to zero in on angles where we have more clarity. We know the Giants, Jaguars, Jets and Lions are all bad. We know the Seahawks have already slowed down their pace after an up-tempo showing to open the season. In spite of multiple turnovers against the Chargers, we know the Chiefs still have an elite offense, as they racked up 33 first downs and 437 yards in that tilt. But we also know the Chiefs’ defense is one of the worst in the league.

How we take these things we know and apply them to our betting process should only get better as we move forward, and as you’ll see below in the accountability section, I’ve got a lot of room to get better in my application of the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet this season. The sheet gathers betting lines plus efficiency and pace data from Football Outsiders. In this weekly series, I’ll analyze those matchup stats and attack the slate's against-the-spread and over/under numbers in search of winning bets. Finding profitable plays has been tough sledding the past two weeks, but our ever-growing sample of data can only help from here on out.

Accountability

I went 2-6 with my picks last week for a loss of 4.14 units. Year to date, my record is 13-16 and I’m down 5.69 units. The Raiders really ruined me in failing to squelch Jacoby Brissett. They allowed Miami’s backup quarterback to claw back in regulation, which killed my under bet on the game total and left me hanging on the spread’s half-point hook when they won by only three in overtime. Meanwhile, I took another loss expecting the Cardinals and Jaguars to pace their way to an over. Arizona showed up flat, evidenced by the 109-yard field goal return they allowed on special teams. The Jaguars are just a mess all over, making them risky to bet with, regardless of how fast they play. Now that we have three weeks of matchup data to draw upon, it should get easier to identify the teams and matchups we have the best feel for.