NFL Week 10 Lookahead Lines Report

Trying to predict where each game's line is going to re-open isn't complicated, but it's invaluable. Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game that's about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I know that the majority of the casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.

In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, which is an indication the book feels they've priced the game correctly. Unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five-to-six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window provides a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers prior to the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. At times, it ends up being the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 9 evaluation of the team and market, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 10. My Week 9 plays in this space were Buffalo at -11 and Dallas at -7, so congratulations if you tailed

For reference, I'll be using the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. You can use the game tiles below to find the best number, and the spread listed is based on the home team:

Week 10 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these quirks are already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.

Byes: Bears, Bengals, Texans, Giants

Ravens @ Dolphins (+6.5)

I was loud, some would argue obnoxiously loud, about my Dolphins 'hate' in the preseason, but I didn't think it would be this bad. They enter Week 9 with one of the league's worst defensive units, ranking 29th in both yards and points per drive allowed. They're also 29th in explosive pass rate allowed, making this a difficult matchup against a Ravens club that's suddenly willing to sling it around early and often. Baltimore ranks third in explosive pass rate on the season. The addition of Rashod Bateman adds another layer to this offense that's made them even more difficult to defend. I think the Dolphins beat the Texans in Week 9, but Houston is clearly live in this spot with Tyrod Taylor back under center. If the Ravens handle Minnesota and the Dolphins play with their food against the Texans, this re-opens at seven or higher.

Buccaneers @ Football Team (+7.5)

This is a rematch of last season's Wild Card round matchup. With both teams on bye in Week 9, this line should hold steady heading into next week. On paper, there's a glaring mismatch here when Tampa Bay has the football. Surprisingly, Washington has been the village bicycle when it comes to pass defense this season. Everyone takes them for a ride. They rank 31st in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric against the pass, and they're 30th in both yards and points per drive allowed. The Buccaneers likely find success throwing early and often in this spot. Watch this space.

Falcons @ Cowboys (-9.5)

Who are the Falcons? What do they do well? Back-to-back close wins against the Jets and Dolphins fooled some into thinking this team was a playoff contender, but their offense was anemic with Calvin Ridley active. I'm not sure what to expect from them with Ridley on the sidelines. They have no chance to keep pace with a Cowboys offense that hasn't touched its ceiling yet. Despite being one of the league's best units, the Cowboys' offense is just 27th in points per red zone trip this season. That's unsustainably low, and when it regresses to match their true skill, lookout. Anything under 10 here is a play for me.

Jaguars @ Colts (-10.5)

After a brutal opening schedule, the Colts are swimming downstream right now. Indianapolis is a double-digit home favorite for the second straight week, but I don't have the appetite for laying 10+ points on Carson Wentz. Unfortunately, Urban Meyer is leaning on a collection of NFL castoffs to prop up his rookie quarterback, and it's going about as well as one would expect under the circumstances. This is a corner television game and one solely exploitable for props.

Browns @ Patriots (-3)

With the potential of Odell Beckham Jr. being done in Cleveland, these two clubs are starting to become the Spiderman meme in human form. Both defenses are stout and able to drum up pressure on the opposing quarterback, while offensively, they'd love to run the football over and over again while lacking a true lid-lifter at wide receiver to keep a defense from loading the box against them. Both clubs need this to position themselves for a playoff berth down the stretch.

Vikings @ Chargers (-3)

As we saw with the recent matchups against the Browns, Ravens and Patriots, the Chargers get themselves into trouble against these teams that will happily run the ball 55-60% of the time. Dalvin Cook is going to have himself a field day here unless the Chargers suddenly pivot defensive strategies and try loading the box with more than six defenders on every snap. I think Week 9's results could move this around the three to either side depending on the respective outcomes, so don't hesitate to act accordingly if you have a lean.

Seahawks @ Packers (-5)

This number appears to be baking in the return of Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. That's far from a sure thing, but unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers's status is up in the air a bit as well after his Week 9 positive COVID-19 results. The Packers at less than six are worth a play if you have a stomach for risk.

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