2022 the Memorial Betting Preview

Jun 01, 2022

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With only two weeks until the year’s third major at the U.S. Open, the PGA heads to Muirfield Village and one of the more iconic courses on Tour as it hosts the Memorial Tournament in Dublin, Ohio. “Jack’s Place” is a beautiful championship venue that has grown into one of golf’s premier events. It is also a demanding course. It's bold, long, and one where players must do everything well tee-to-green. Those who get out of position will struggle to make par. Designer Jack Nicklaus tends to allow players to swing away without much penalty off the tee, but the trade-off is challenging green complexes that put a strong emphasis on accurate approach play along with proper touch around the greens and scrambling.

The only venue in history to host the Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup, and the Solheim Cup, Muirfield Village typically hosts one of the strongest fields on Tour each year. For this week, seven top-10 ranked players will be in attendance, including Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth. It was last year after three rounds when Rahm was destroying the field with a six-shot lead until he was forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19. Patrick Cantlay went on to win for the second time in the last three years with a score of 13-under.

Competing for $12 million in prize money, the Memorial is a 120-man invitational event with the top-65 and ties making it through the cut line. Similar to Augusta National in many ways, it presents a great warm-up for the upcoming challenging conditions players will see at the U.S. Open.

Muirfield Village Golf Club

History

Located just a few miles northwest of Columbus, Ohio, Muirfield Village was founded by golf legend Jack Nicklaus. He named it after Muirfield, Scotland, where he completed his first grand slam in 1966 after winning the British Open. Situated on 220 acres, the club officially opened in May of 1974. As far as why he chose the site, Nicklaus remarked, “It’s a pretty site. When I saw it, I liked the way it flowed through the valleys, and I knew I wanted to create a gallery golf course. The valleys were wide enough to accommodate that goal.”

With Augusta National in mind, Nicklaus built a course that epitomizes his design philosophy. It is a brawny style of modern architecture favoring players with a high ball flight and those with a left-to-right power fade off the tee.

Jack Nicklaus is the type of course designer who is never satisfied and is always looking to modernize his creations. This is nowhere more true than here at Muirfield Village. Since its inception, Nicklaus has remodeled every hole on the course at least once. His main reason for doing so is to keep up with the distance and talent of current times.

After the 2020 event, Nicklaus oversaw an extensive course renovation—new tees added on five holes, a complete reconstruction of the green complexes with bentgrass surfaces, and re-contoured bunkers. The 15th hole was also completely re-built. This renovation also lengthened the course by close to 100 yards.

Looking back from 2016 to 2020, Muirfield Village played to an average score of 0.75 over par. When analyzing the data after last year's renovation, it played a little more difficult at an average of 0.97 over par.

The Course

Muirfield Village Golf Club is a par-72 course measuring 7,533 yards. The added length makes it the ninth-longest annual course on Tour. This classical parkland course is characterized by elevation changes, tree-lined fairways, tough bunkers, nine holes with water danger, severely undulating green complexes, and 4″ thick rough. The margin of error is so low here that misses will cause the number of bogeys to add up rather quickly.

The course doesn’t really have one iconic hole but instead is made up of 18 magnificent holes. A good majority of the scoring at Muirfield comes on the four par-5s. They make up four of the only six holes that actually play under par, each in the 550-600 yard range. That being said, they are among the toughest group of par-5s on Tour and played as the fifth-most difficult after last year’s renovation. Excluding the 561-yard 15th, the other three can typically be reached in two shots. Last year, 23 of the top 25 players on the leaderboard gained on the field on the par-5s.

Three of the par-3s are over 200 yards and play a combined 0.62 over par. They are the toughest par-3s on Tour. Players will be hitting long irons into small and firm greens and will have their patience tested.

There is not a single par-4 that plays under par. The only par-4s that are even close are the two holes under 400 yards. Seven of them play between 450-500 yards—a range that should be targeted with players who have success from that range.

Muirfield is a stern test and its design is typical of one of Nicklaus’s core philosophies. With wider fairways, each hole gets more difficult the further it gets from the tee box. Nicklaus believes in challenging players on approach and into the greens so those who can hit quality irons and can scramble to save par will rise to the top.

Known for its immaculate grass conditions and fantastically-manicured grounds, Muirfield Village is a picturesque golf course. Fairway grass and greens are made up of Bentgrass, while the rough is a 4″ blend of Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass, and fescue. The greens are very pure and consistent throughout, rolling at around a fast 13 on the stimpmeter. They are also known for being some of the toughest greens on Tour with broad sweeping contours and numerous pin locations that will funnel back toward the hole when hit to the proper quadrant.

Strokes Gained Analysis

While fairways are generous at Muirfield Village, averaging 34.5 yards across, there is a damaging penalty for anyone missing them. Not only does water lurk throughout the course, but the 4″ thick rough is among the most penal on Tour. Errant tee shots will result in buried balls or a hazard. There is definitely a premium for driving the ball in the fairway this week. Last year, every single player in the top 10 gained strokes in good drive %, and 14 out of 15 gained off the tee.

With the course being so long, however, players still need to bring some distance to the table. Longer hitters off the tee who can then attack the greens with wedges and higher lofted clubs hold a distinct advantage. As mentioned earlier, many holes demand something Nicklaus was great at himself—hitting a high power fade. Many players have commented about that type of ball flight working well here.

Muirfield Village is the ultimate shotmakers course that demands precision on every stroke, yet birdie opportunities can be gained if players can find the right quadrant on the greens. The top five in last year’s event gained an average of 4.8 shots on approach. Along with some of the firmest greens on Tour, there is also water danger on approach on numerous holes. With the seventh-smallest greens on Tour, even good approaches can go unrewarded as balls will bounce and roll off these firm and fast greens. Players who short-side themselves on approach will have a difficult time scrambling as they will be putting downhill, which makes a 3-putt all the more likely. It is no wonder Muirfield ranks as the fifth-toughest course to gain strokes on approach.

Another key factor this week players have been heavily quoted on is leaving your putts below the hole on the proper area of the green. With the greens sloping so severely in spots, there are many locations where the ball will gather to the hole. Much of this is learned by course experience—another reason to target players who have been battle-tested at Muirfield. Learning where you can and can’t miss will be paramount to success. Finally, players with a higher ball apex who can land their ball softer on these greens will be crucial for a higher GIR%.

Scrambling and around the green play will be critical this week. Much of the scoring difficulty at Muirfield comes mostly from the touch and creativity golfers need to display with their short game. SG: ARG is actually the fourth-most correlated stat to having success here. Last year, the top six players gained at least two strokes in SG: ARG. It’s not just the 4" rough that gives players trouble, it's the 67 bunkers, many of which are massive, that surround these greens.

With the greens at Muirfield Village being so fast and undulated it seems to level out the playing field in terms of putting skill because everyone has to putt so defensively. Last year, it ranked 32nd out of 40 courses in putting difficulty, whereas before the green complexes were renovated, it had never finished outside the top 20. Jordan Spieth has remarked about how important imagination is on these greens because with all the ridges and slopes you have to find creative ways to lag your ball to the hole. Jon Rahm need not worry about a putting contest this week. He seems to love putting on these greens and will look to avenge his almost certain victory from last year.

Keys to Success

Coming on the heels of the Schwab Challenge last week and the PGA Championship two weeks ago, the Memorial has a common theme with both—the importance of the approach game into these ultra-firm, smaller-than-average greens. I know it sounds like it gets repeated for almost every event, but this week Strokes Gained: Approach really matters. Muirfield Village is the fifth-toughest course on Tour to gain strokes in that area. Since greens in regulation are only hit at a 58% clip, plenty of approaches end up in the 4" rough. Scrambling is only successful on these greens 53% of the time, making it the second-toughest course to gain around the green. These are the two metrics I have focused on with my player selection as ball-strikers and short-game wizards have contended with high frequency on past leaderboards.

Muirfield Village has always had a “major” feel to it thanks to the strength of the field and the tough U.S. Open-type conditions. With the exception of a three-year stretch from 2015 to 2017, it has been the elite talents in the game that have won this event. With that in mind, this makes it much easier to narrow down an outright card with a focus on players with odds of 50-1 or lower. Thus, I have completely refrained from longshots this week. Going back to 2010, when taking out the two longshots in David Lingmerth and William McGirt, the average winner’s odds was +3800.

With the course stretching to over 7,500 yards, distance will matter this week. A huge focus for me this week is total driving because those players who can keep the ball in the fairway yet still pound it 300+ yards will have a sizeable advantage due to their ability to take lofted shorter irons into these firm greens. The average approach shot distance is 190 yards, which is one of the highest averages on Tour. Performance with long irons, especially from the 175+ yard range, is vital here. Course history has also proven to matter. With putting shown to be much easier than the average Tour course, having the knowledge of what part of the greens to target and where to miss is very important.

Ideally, we want golfers who keep the ball in the fairway and who have some pop in their driver. We want precise approach players along with those who excel around the greens. Positive bentgrass putting and players with a successful track record here at Muirfield Village should also be targeted. Finally, let’s not forget about par-5 scoring. The four par-5s on this course average a combined 0.98 strokes under par and are among the few scoring holes on the entire track.

Dublin, Ohio Weather Forecast (June 2-June 5)

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

SG: APP
Scrambling
Total Driving
SG: ARG
Par 5 Scoring
Bogeys Avoided
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards
Par 3 Scoring 175-225
SG: Course History
SG: Comparable Courses

The Memorial Tournament Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.