NCAA CBB Best Bets: Back the Longhorns in Burnt Orange Battle

Every Saturday slate in college hoops feels like a big deal, especially ever since the calendar flipped to January and conference play started heating up. But thanks to the Big 12/SEC Challenge, this near-150 game schedule feels even bigger than most.

Which conference will have bragging rights after this weekend? The Big 12 has widely been considered the best conference in the sport this year, but can the SEC steal enough of these matchups? Kentucky vs. Kansas is the main attraction, but Texas-Tennessee, Iowa State-Missouri, Florida-Kansas State, and Alabama-Oklahoma will all be worth watching.

Elsewhere in college hoops, we have conference battles featuring North Carolina State-Wake Forest, Ohio State-Indiana, Xavier-Creighton, and Utah-Oregon. With no NFL to steal our attention, this will certainly be a day to bet a bunch of college basketball games.

I’ll likely share some more plays in the Discord for this slate—where we have gone undefeated this week—but this article will highlight some of my favorite initial plays on the board. Let’s dive in.

Today’s CBB Best Bets

Texas +8 at Tennessee (-110, DraftKings)

Opposing teams are shooting 21.6% from long range against Tennessee this season, which naturally is the best mark in the country. We know three-point defense can be a result of variance, and a closer look confirms that might be the case here. Teams have only hit 38 unguarded three-pointers (on 152 attempts) against the Volunteers, according to Synergy Sports Technology.

The Volunteers have an elite defense, but that clip is simply unsustainable. There is a chance we get some positive regression as early as this week, as Texas ranks No. 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency. In non-conference, Tennessee faced a hot Arizona offense at the time and ultimately lost that game by a 75-70 margin. The Longhorns might not win this game, but I think they stay within striking distance here.

Risk: 1.1 units at DraftKings to win 1 unit (Playable to 6.5)

Charleston -6.5 vs. Hofstra (-110, Barstool)

College of Charleston cracked the AP Poll for the first time in 20 years earlier this season, and Pat Kelsey’s squad has been under a microscope ever since. The Cougars (21-1, 9-0) are currently on a 20-game win streak, but there has been chatter about whether or not they deserve to be ranked after laboring through some recent victories in the Colonial Athletic Association.

It has certainly had an impact on the betting market, as No. 18 Charleston is just a 6.5-point favorite against visiting Hofstra (14-8, 7-2) on Saturday. It marks the first time the Cougars have been a single-digit favorite at home since Nov. 29. We will buy the dip on a team that has covered the number in two of the last three games. There will be plenty of points scored in this one, but Charleston should still prevail by a few possessions.

Risk: 1.1 units at Barstool to win 1 unit. (Playable to 8)

Montana State (-1.5) at Sacramento State (-110, DraftKings)

On Thursday, we hit a short Montana State spread in the Discord ahead of its 75-66 win over Portland State and the hope is to do that again in this article. The Hornets do a good job of limiting teams from three-point range, but that’s not really how the Bobcats want to beat teams. Behind the combo of RaeQuan Battle and Jubrile Belo, Montana State ranks 43rd in the country with a two-point percentage of 54.1%. Belo left Thursday's game early due to injury, so his status will need to be monitored ahead of this one.

Montana State has only lost once since the calendar flipped to January, which was a 74-70 road loss to Idaho in a game where it couldn’t dig out of an early hole. The Bobcats are currently atop my Big Sky power ratings and ranked No. 1 in the league in adjusted Shot Quality. I think they are undervalued against a Sacramento State team that has lost two of its last three entering this weekend.

Risk: 1.1 units at DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to 2.5)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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