UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic Betting Preview & Best Bets

Last week we saw one of the cleanest knockouts in UFC history, the most uneventful fight I've ever seen, and a Main Event packed with action for as long as it lasted. My weekly card picks went 9-5 and I've begun to narrow down the fighters I'm most confident in and post them in our discord. Those went 7-3 on Saturday and I'm ready to build on it all this week.

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic Best Bets

Katlyn Chookagian By Decision (+120, Fanduel)

Winner of three straight and six of her last eight, Katlyn Chookagian is possibly one win away from another title shot. With a Flyweight Championship bout just a month away, it would certainly make sense should she win on Saturday. With 14 of her 17 wins coming by way of decision, she isn't the most exciting fighter but wins are wins and she can't be denied much longer. Chookagian knows how to utilize her jab behind her rangy frame and does so with good volume. She's a brown belt in BJJ under Renzo Gracie and that knowledge on the ground may come into use here to get it back on the feet versus her opponent.

Amanda Ribas comes in with an 11-2 record and 5-1 in the UFC. She lived up to the hype starting 4-0 before getting finished by Marina Rodriguez. Now back in the win column, the black belt in BJJ and Judo knows she wants to get this fight grounded where can get to work but that may not be an easy task here. Chookagian stands five inches taller and will be the bigger and longer fighter in the cage. This could aid Chookagian in stuffing takedowns, winning clinch exchanges, and getting up quickly should she get taken down. Ribas will have her hands full trying to get inside Chookagians hips and with the striking and size advantage of Chook, I think she controls the pace and has her way for the majority of three rounds.

Risk: 1 unit on Fanduel to win 1.2 units.

Hadley/Nascimento To Go The Distance (-115, Caesars)

I won't be cheering for many knockouts this week but we have an interesting one here. Allan Nascimento comes in at 18-6 but 0-2 in the UFC. With two split decision losses against very tough opponents, Nascimento has serviceable striking, and his 13 wins by submission show how tricky he can be on the ground. His background in BJJ was on full display versus Tagir Ulanbekov where he was very patient on the ground but his submission attempts came only when presented to him.

Jake Hadley has a bit more aggressive style to his ground game. With an 8-0 record, Hadley doesn't have the best striking but a very slick ground game and smooth transitions get him the positions he wants. Pretty comfortable from his back and flexible, he will throw up different submissions from there or ultimately work his way to your back to lock up a rear-naked choke. We often see cautious approaches when fighters respect each other's game, especially on the ground. I see thee fighters working very hard for positions while trying to stay out of trouble and that will just drain the clock. This line has ballooned to -150 on most sportsbooks, so we're getting quite the discount here.

RIsk: 1.15 units on Caesars to win 1 unit.

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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