Scott Smith’s UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo Best Bets

The UFC comes off another layoff with a rather uninspiring fight card ahead of the excitement for next week’s UFC 280. This card is headlined by a matchup between Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo. The pair have combined to finish 30% of their fights. Other fights on this card will however offer a bit more excitement as well as an opportunity to target positive trends.

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo Best Bets

Pete Rodriguez/Joanderson Brito/Mana Martinez Parlay (+144, DraftKings)

Pete Rodriguez vs. Mike Jackson Fight Breakdown

Mike Jackson is not a UFC-caliber talent. He lost to Mickey Gall for the right to fight C.M. Punk but later got the chance as the UFC gave Punk one more try. Jackson has since bought his time on the UFC roster and recently got a victory via eye poke to bring his professional record to 1-1-1. Without a legitimate win on his record, there is no way to justify the 37-year-old being on the UFC roster. If there is a positive for Jackson, he does offer a positive striking differential as well as a 67% striking defense, albeit against a suspect level of competition and experience.

Pete Rodriguez comes into this fight with a record of 4-1 and limited experience. His lone fight in the UFC was against Jack Della Maddalena. With such a tough test in his debut, the UFC is offering Rodriguez a showcase fight. Rodriguez offers solid striking as well as some power that should be on display in this fight. Rodriguez has had tougher fights on the regional scene than what Jackson offers in this spot. Rodriguez has a 100% finish rate and is the biggest favorite on the card.

Joanderson Brito vs. Lucas Alexander Fight Breakdown

Lucas Alexander is a 7-2 fighter from Brazil. He takes this fight on short notice and has a history of issues making weight. With this fight being added to the card the Sunday before fight week, there could be a concern for weight issues to come into play here. Alexander offers a solid skill set but has fought subpar competition on the regional scene. Alexander has violent leg kicks and does a good job with his footwork in his returns. Alexander is live on his feet and could have some success striking from the outside. Alexander does take fights to the ground and press action against the cage from time to time, but, overall, his control and submission attempts are sloppy and uncontrolled. Alexander will likely come out looking to make something happen early in this fight.

Joanderson Brito will bring a level of experience and explosiveness Alexander has yet to deal with. Brito’s biggest issue is pairing his explosiveness with a proper pace that will allow him to remain effective into the latter minutes of fights. Brito will look to close the distance in this fight and bring the fight to Alexander. Brito can have some problems with fighters who remain effective from the outside. If Alexander shows any hesitancy or lack of confidence in doing so, Brito will pounce and overwhelm with strikes. Brito was ready and training for a fight and has experience on his side. Those reasons and the explosiveness Brito possesses point to him winning this fight.

Mana Martinez vs. Brandon Davis Fight Breakdown

Brandon Davis is on his second stint with the UFC. His first run saw mixed results with him losing to talented fighters making it unable to leave his mark. With three wins in the UFC, none of them have come against fighters with winning records at the top level. Davis has a well-rounded skill set on the feet and is a willing striker. His issue is that he doesn’t offer much power or much in the way of speed or explosiveness in his striking. He too often attempts to walk his opponents down while getting into a dog fight that sees him taking a few to land one. Davis is coming off a knockout in his last fight. That, coupled with his fighting style, makes durability a concern. Davis does have a path to victory in this fight should it get out of the first round. Davis will have a slight advantage in the grappling department, particularly when it comes to takedowns.

Mana Martinez is coming off a loss to Ronnie Lawrence. Martinez showed power in his hands as he was able to hurt Lawrence late in that fight. Lawrence was able to take advantage of Martinez in the wrestling department. Martinez will need to clean some of that up if he is to advance his career in the UFC. Martinez’s biggest weapon is the power he possesses in his hands. A dangerous striker, Martinez will look to take the fight to Davis on the feet. Martinez has some victories over other UFC fighters at the regional level and will look to add his second UFC victory to his record.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.44 units. (Playable down to +125)

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