Thanksgiving NFL Player Prop Bets

Happy Thanksgiving! While you will likely spend the holidays with your family, eating home-cooked food and drinking a few adult beverages, there’s no reason you shouldn’t also be sweating some player props during the games. Family, food, and football (bets), right?

All of our player prop bets are normally behind a paywall and released in our subscriber-only Discord but for the Thanksgiving slate, we thought it was only right to give back to the community and made them free! If you like our handicaps, consider subscribing to our betting subscription for 85% off! Normally $239, you can get an all-inclusive subscription for just $34! Subscribe here!

Thanksgiving NFL Player Prop Bets

Dalton Schultz Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-118 at Caesars)

We are getting a reduced number after last week's 3-22-0 line in a massive blowout. When we zoom out and look at Schultz's whole season with Dak Prescott we get...

• Week 1: 7 catches for 62 yards (5-48 before Prescott's injury mid-game)
• Week 7: 5 catches for 49 yards
• Week 8: 6 catches for 74 yards
• Week 10: 6 catches for 54 yards
• Week 11: 3 catches for 22 yards

Schultz has gone well over 34 yards in 4-of-5 games with Prescott this season. We're willing to bet on last week being an outlier especially since we have a bounce-back spot against the Giants, who rank 31st in DVOA versus tight ends this season and are allowing 59.8 yards per game to the position. We would play this up to 38.5.

Risk: 1.18 units to win 1 unit at Caesars.

Dak Prescott Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-120, DraftKings)

Dak Prescott isn't cut from the same cloth as Justin Fields (7 carries, 52 yards vs the Giants) or Lamar Jackson (7 for 77), but he's a willing scrambler when the opportunity presents itself. Prescott's longest rush in three of his five starts has been 11 yards, so he could do this on a single carry. With 3, 4, and 5 attempts the past couple of weeks, he's topped this mark in two of his past three starts, and we feel good about his mobility post-injury. We've had a ton of success attacking quarterback rushing overs against man/blitz-heavy defenses this season, and no one blitzes more than the Giants. Prescott is more Geno Smith (5 carries, 26 yards) than Fields or Jackson, but 20+ yards is well within his range of outcomes on 3-5 attempts.

This is available at the same price and number on both BetMGM and Caesars.

Risk: 1.2 to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 3.5 receptions (-125, DraftKings)

Damien Harris is back, but that's not impacting Rhamondre Stevenson's role very much. Stevenson's playing every 3rd down snap, all long-down and distance snaps, and is getting peppered with targets of late. He has 28 catches on 34 targets in the past five games. In Week 11, Stevenson's 79% route participation was the second-most at the position.

League-wide, running backs are targeted on 15% of their routes against man and 22% against zone coverages this season. No team has played a higher rate of zone snaps this season than the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have faced 7.4 running back targets per game this season, the league's fifth-highest mark.

This is also available at -130 on BetMGM and -127 on Caesars.

Risk: 1.25 to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Kirk Cousins under 251.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

We rode the under last week against the Cowboys and the handicap couldn't have been more spot on. Cousins folded under pressure and struggled to consistently complete passes against man coverage.

Kirk Cousins under pressure this season

• 42.3% completion rate
• 6.3 Yards per attempt

Kirk Cousins against man coverage

• 48.6% completion rate
• 6.6 Yards per attempt

Dallas ranks 5th in man coverage rate and 2nd in pressure rate. New England ranks 4th in man coverage rate and 1st in pressure rate, so statistically, they are better in both categories. On top of this, LT Christian Darrisaw is out for this game. As Hayden Winks noted on Twitter, the Vikings have allowed a 54% pressure rate the past two weeks without Darrisaw on the field!

Vikings have allowed a 54% pressure rate (!) when emerging LT Christian Darrisaw (concussions) was off the field the last two weeks per @football_sis.



Patriots defense 2nd in adjusted sack rate.

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 22, 2022

The Patriots are currently 1st in Pass DVOA, 2nd in pass EPA/Play, and 3rd in play success rate this season. Some of that is skewed by a soft schedule but the reality is their style of play has been the kryptonite of Kirk Cousins and the Vikings' passing offense so far.

I also don't anticipate the Patriots being able to capitalize on big plays as frequently as the Cowboys did due to their offense, which could lead to a lower-scoring outing and less opportunity for garbage time shenanigans. I would play this down to 245.5 passing yards.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

DJ Chark under 36.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Chark played just 16% of the snaps last week behind Tom Kennedy, Khalif Raymond, and Amon Ra St Brown. Now on a short week, it's unlikely he assumes his normal role. He'll likely see a bit more work but is probably still rotating in. There is also a chance that Josh Reynolds plays and adds to this mix. This is also a tough matchup against a stingy Bills defense that does a good job limiting big play and the Lions will be without two of their starting OL, limiting their opportunities to throw deep. We have 26 receiving yards projected and I would play this down to 30.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings

We will update this column throughout the week with more bets.

For the most up-to-date picks, check out us out on Twitter (Ryan & Connor) and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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