Week 18 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Ryan Noonan

Jan 06, 2023

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You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it over the years. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.

There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance, and I believe our team's process is sound, and we can exploit this market every week of the season.

Our Discord users know my new passion is tackle and assist props, but sportsbooks had been posting them later and later each week, making it impossible to feature them here weekly. If you're looking for tackle and assist looks, I always preview a few of my favorites on our Move The Line Prop Drop show on Friday afternoons but make sure you're in Discord to get the official plays each week. The player prop tool is also pulling in my projections, an added bonus if you're looking to dip your toes in this market. And don't forget to see who Connor Allen is betting on.

Week 18 NFL Player Prop Bets

Rhamondre Stevenson Under 50.5 rushing yards (-115, PointsBet)

I played this at 55.5 and talked about it on the Prop Drop Show, but I was waiting for it to become available at more spots. Rhamondre Stevenson has only topped 47.5 yards twice in his past seven games, most of those as the team's bell cow back due to Damien Harris' litany of injuries. Damien Harris returned last week and handled 43% of the team's carries compared to just 38% for Stevenson (down from 81% the week before).

Also, he's tired.

This is a bad matchup for New England against a stout Bills run defense that ranks top-10 in DVOA on the year. This is also a spot where I'd expect a negative game script for the Patriots sooner than later, forcing New England to increase its pass rate to keep up. This is widely available at 47.5, and I'm still comfortable with an under to that point.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on PointsBet.