Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 1 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 1 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Editor's Note: This article pairs perfectly with Week 2's Breakout Model

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last five weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's neutral-script pass rate (NPR) to its red-zone pass rate, with the size of the team's point showing its pass rate over expectation (PROE). Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• Last year, the Green Bay Packers were the slowest team in the NFL, with a neutral-script seconds per play of 33.7 seconds. They picked up right where they left off, running a play every 33 seconds in their loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Typically, playing that slow makes the offense easy to avoid, especially from a DFS perspective, because they don't offer the same weekly ceiling as teams that play quickly. However, last year, Green Bay featured a 9.8% explosive pass rate, so they were able to move the ball with chunk plays. Though Christian Watson dropped what would have been an explosive pass, this pace and the lack of concentration in the passing attack make their pass-catchers a clear avoid in all formats until we get more clarity.
  • Action: start only Packers running backs and Robert Tonyan until a wide receiver differentiates himself in target share
• On the flip side, the two fastest teams last year - the Chargers and the Cowboys - remained two of the highest-paced teams in Week 1. However, there's cause for concern with the Cowboys now that they'll be without Dak Prescott for an extended period of time. In one game that Prescott missed last year, Dallas went from a neutral-script pace of 27.7 seconds per play to a sluggish 32.2 seconds per play. While Dallas did play with some urgency towards the end of Week 1, they were forced to by facing a double-digit deficit. Not only is Dallas' pace a concern, but they were the only team not to score a touchdown in Week 1 and posted a ghastly -0.48 EPA per play on offense.
  • Action: start only Ceedee Lamb while Prescott is out

Team Pass Rates

• Lamar Jackson wants a new contract, and if Baltimore is going to continue to pass as much as they did in Week 1, they might want to get something locked up quickly, even if he's told them he's done negotiating. Last year, Baltimore's 58.1% neutral-script pass rate ranked 17th in the league, which doesn't sound high, but when you consider that they ranked 32nd in each of the two years prior, it was a big jump. Now, with a neutral-script pass rate of 75% in Week 1, the Ravens may continue to feature Jackson's arms over his legs. So what does this mean for fantasy? Well, it means that guys like Devin Duvernay, who earned both of the team's end zone targets in Week 1 and boasted 3.0 yards per route run, may have some fantasy value.
  • Action: add Devin Duvernay and Isaiah Likely
• Bring in a star wide receiver, and you will be served well by passing a bunch. That's just what the Las Vegas Raiders did by acquiring Davante Adams and peppering him with 17 targets, tied for the fourth-most in a game in his career. In 2021, Las Vegas' 61% neutral-script pass rate ranked 12th in the league - the Raiders may not pass as frequently as they did in Week 1 (a 75% pass rate is very high), but it's encouraging to know that they'll likely continue this trend under new head coach Josh McDaniels. The question is —is there enough of the pie to go around for Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, who both totaled six targets in Week 1? I believe so because I don't expect Adams to have such an outrageous target total each week.
  • Action: buy low on Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller

Running Back Usage

• When the New York Jets announced Joe Flacco as the Week 1 starter over Mike White, I was slightly disappointed because White was a boon for the Jets' running backs in his starts last year. Well, it turns out that both of them are! Because of Flacco, the Jets were tied for the second-most team high value touches with 13 (Breece Hall had six while Michael Carter had seven). Between the two backs, the receiving numbers are nearly identical. While Hall had one more target (10 to Carter's 9), they both ran a route on 42% of dropbacks. Conversely, Carter did out-carry Hall 10 to 6 and looked like the better rusher, posting 1.2 rushing yards over expectation per carry. But what really stands out is that Carter dominated in 3rd-down snap percentage (70.6% to 23.5%) and red zone snap percentage (61.5% to 38.5%). These lead me to believe that Carter is still the 1a and Hall is the 1b.
  • Action: hold and start both Michael Carter and Breece Hall while Joe Flacco is starting
• Another backfield that features a rookie running back that also didn't pan out as expected is that of the Houston Texans. Massively-hyped rookie running back Dameon Pierce played second fiddle to veteran Rex Burkhead, getting out-snapped 51 to 20 in Week 1. Burkhead was clearly the lead receiving back, running a route on 61% of the team's dropbacks, while Pierce only ran five total routes. The bright side for Pierce is that he was used quite frequently when he was on the field. Despite playing only 20 snaps, he had 12 total opportunities in the game. If his snap share rises, then I would expect his opportunities to rise with it.
  • Action: add Rex Burkhead and hold Dameon Pierce

Wide Receiver Usage

• Like the Raiders, the Miami Dolphins invested heavily in an elite wide receiver and quickly got him involved. Tyreek Hill recorded a team-high 38.7% target share and 41.9% air yards share. With that, his 0.84 WOPR ranked fifth on the week, while his teammate recorded a 0.37 WOPR, good for 56th on the week. Unfortunately, Hill failed to find the end zone this week, but that keeps the opportunity for fantasy managers to buy high on him down to a reasonable price. Behind Hill and Waddle, Chase Edmonds was the only player to record more than two targets. This offense looks to be among the more concentrated passing attacks in the league again this year, which is a huge positive for Hill and Waddle.
  • Action: buy high on Tyreek Hill
• It was clear coming into the season that Amon-Ra St. Brown would be one of the core pieces of the Lions' passing offense. But, many fantasy pundits attributed his success to TJ Hockenson and D'Andre Swift missing time during his late-season run. Well, he shoved all those haters aside and recorded 12 targets in Week 1, tied for his career high in a game. St. Brown also found the end zone and could have had an even bigger day if not for two drops. The bigger story out of Detroit, though, is DJ Chark taking command of the WR2 role in the offense. Chark's 22.2% target share was second on the team. Most notably, though, is that Chark ran as many routes as St. Brown did (36) and was the team's deep threat with a 15.5-yard average depth of target.
  • Action: start DJ Chark as a flex option
• Michael Pittman is an alpha wide receiver, and if that wasn't obvious coming into the season, it should be now after earning 13 targets (good for a 26.5% target share) and only coming off of the field for one of the Colts' dropbacks. There was always a question of who was behind Pittman on the Indianapolis depth chart, though. While the answer might seem obvious in Ashton Dulin being the WR2 because of his six targets, he barely saw the field, running a route on just 25.9% of Indy's team dropbacks. He did appear to be the team's deep threat with a 15.8-yard average depth of target. Meanwhile, both Parris Campbell and rookie Alec Pierce ran a route on over 66% of dropbacks but only got four and two targets, respectively. I would tend to lean towards Pierce as the second option (at least in terms of fantasy) as he got two of the team's four end zone targets, but he is dealing with a concussion, so he may be out this week. There's still some ambiguity with this receiving group and this week should give us even more clarity.
  • Action: hold Alec Pierce and add Ashton Dulin

Tight End Usage

• Kyle Pitts managers that drafted him in the first three rounds are likely concerned after a 4.8-point fantasy performance in Week 1. But, there is plenty of reason to believe the Pitts is still the real deal and that the Falcons want to feature him as an offensive weapon. First, he was still tied for the team lead with a 21.9% target share and ran a route on 75.7% of the team's dropbacks. The problem was that he only converted two of his seven targets to a reception, but that could have been due to his 13.3-yard average depth of target, which is up from 10.8 yards last year. Take a deep breath and let the Pitts points come to you.
  • Action: buy or hold Kyle Pitts and start him without any doubts
• Similar to Pitts, David Njoku had a disappointing day. Though the expectations for Njoku were much lower than Pitts, Njoku only earned one target on Sunday while teammate Harrison Bryant was tied for second on the team in targets with four. The encouraging part is that Njoku ran a route on 72.2% of the team's dropbacks (third-most on the team behind Donovan Peoples-Jones and Amari Cooper), which was nearly double the rate that Bryant had (41.2%). Additionally, the Browns used two-tight-end sets at the ninth-highest rate in Week 1, so it's clear that they want to feature their tight ends with the lack of depth at receiver.
  • Action: hold, but do not start, David Njoku