Week 2 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Sep 15, 2022

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Handicapping Week 2 of the NFL season is always challenging. We've been eagerly anticipating meaningful football games for nearly eight months. After spending all that time forecasting and projecting team and player performances across the league, we've finally seen each team play, and it's difficult to put it into proper context.

What data is actionable, and what's one week of noise?

What is small-sample-variance, and what is a usage or situational trend that we need to get ahead of before the public does?

At its best, the transition between Weeks 1 and 2 of the NFL season is a breeding zone for confirmation bias. At its worse, it's a chance to throw away all that you thought you knew heading into kickoff last Sunday afternoon.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I think is the most significant inefficiency in the market: Individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet. It worked in Week 1, as I swept the board in this space, going 4-0.

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

The NFL news cycle and player-related updates are relentless this time of year. All of our plays are released through our subscriber Discord. Go to #Role-Assign and turn on "Staff NFL Plays" to receive push notifications whenever a play is released by the 4for4 team. Beyond picks, our betting subscription includes tools that can't be found anywhere else. You can find out more details about everything a betting subscription comes with here.

Let's dig into Week 2's totals.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.