Week 5 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Oct 04, 2022

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I think is the most significant inefficiency in the market: Individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

The NFL news cycle and player-related updates are relentless this time of year. All of our plays are released through our subscriber Discord. Go to #Role-Assign and turn on "Staff NFL Plays" to receive push notifications whenever a play is released by the 4for4 team. Beyond picks, our betting subscription includes tools that can't be found anywhere else. You can find out more details about everything a betting subscription comes with here.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.