O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 6

Oct 12, 2022

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Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 6 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Vikings @ Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins secondary has been miserable up to this point in the season, ranking 29th in yards per attempt, 26th in completion%, and 30th in QB rating against, resulting in teams averaging 291 yards through the air per game. The pass rush hasn’t held their end of the bargain either, as they currently rank 27th in pressure% and have only accrued nine sacks through five games. Disregarding their obvious issues at the quarterback position, Miami sets up for a tough matchup this Sunday, and much of that revolves around their defensive line versus the young and ascending Vikings offensive line.

The only soft spot along Minnesota’s line is rookie right guard Ed Ingram, but the Dolphins may not have the strengths to exploit him, as the stars along their line are prototypical edge rushers, Melvin Ingram and Jaelan Phillips. If Kirk Cousins is kept clean, it could be another long day for the secondary, as he ranks fourth (out of 35) in adjusted completion percentage (84.8%) when kept clean and has the weapons in tow to carve them up. Look for Justin Jefferson to continue his bid for the receiving title and plug in Irv Smith Jr where you need to; amongst Miami’s many problems, they also rank 26th in aFPA to the tight end position.

Patriots @ Browns

It didn’t feel right that the New England Patriots had a struggling offensive line, and like clockwork, they are a top-10 unit again, if not one of the best units in the league. With a third-string quarterback manning the helm in Week 5, the Patriots allowed only two pressures, and both of those came from non-OL players Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry. With Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney back in the lineup, it’s highly unlikely that the Browns show the ineptitude that the Detroit Lions did last week, but this will still be an interesting battle on Sunday afternoon, and Bailey Zappe should be able to reprieve his role as game-manager.

If kept clean —or at the very least, relatively clean— wide receiver Jakobi Meyers should be in for another good fantasy game. According to our Player Stat Explorer, Meyers sneakily ranks fourth amongst all WRs in target share (31.8%), ninth in air yards share (39.5%), and sixth in yards per game (87). Meyers should be in all fantasy lineups where you hold him, and Hunter Henry also sets up well if Jonnu Smith is forced to miss another week of action.

Ravens @ Giants

Though he was forced to split snaps in his first game back in action since an injury and subsequent re-aggravation to his ankle, Ronnie Stanley looks to be back to 100%. This comes as a huge relief to a Ravens team that had been trotting out fourth-string left tackles as recently as Week 4. The last thing opposing defenses need is Lamar Jackson, with more time in the pocket to launch bombs or take off into the holes of the coverage team, and the New York Giants will be the first team thrown into the fire on Sunday afternoon.

It’s hard to trust anyone out of the Ravens' passing game outside of Jackson and Mark Andrews, but Devin Duvernay has emerged as a very intriguing option with the speed to get behind opposing defenses. He already has three 50+ receiving yardage games on the season, adding 24 rushing yards on three attempts in Week 5, with Rashod Bateman forced to miss the game with a foot injury. Each of the three options is very fantasy viable, with Lamar Jackson being a shoo-in cash game play in DFS contests against a Giants team that has allowed the fourth-most scramble yards to quarterbacks (90) on the season.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Rams vs. Panthers

Things are getting ugly in Carolina, and instead of sitting back and watching, we should take advantage of it in fantasyland. This was already a great matchup on paper, but now we have ex-XFL quarterback P.J. Walker more than likely getting the spot start with Baker Mayfield in a boot and an assistant coach taking over for the recently fired Matt Rhule. Something may be said about a team “playing harder” for a new coach, but let’s not make things more difficult than they need to be. The Panthers have allowed the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing defenses on the backs of a 9.6% adjusted sack rate (28th). That will be tested this Sunday against a Rams front that includes Aaron Donald, who just accounted for two sacks in Week 5 against rookie left tackle Tyler Smith.

Ikem Ekwonu will have his first real test at the NFL level after he was relieved of facing off against Nick Bosa for an entire game when the edge rusher was forced out of action due to a groin injury. Christian McCaffrey is matchup-proof, but no one else on this team is, including D.J. Moore. Start Moore if you absolutely must, but consider other options if they’re available to you.

Commanders @ Bears

Though the Bears are unlikely to climb out of the bottom five of my rankings any time this season due to a pure lack of talent, Justin Fields is not doing the line any favors. Not only does Fields take a sack at a much higher rate than the rest of the league’s quarterbacks, but he is also inviting pressure into the pocket by holding the ball longer than every other quarterback in the NFL. This will not bode well against a Washington defense that ranks second in the league in pressure% (41.5%) and just racked up six sacks against the Titans, even without Chase Young in the lineup.

While Young is scheduled to miss Week 6, the team still has Montez Sweat, who will flip back and forth between the left and right side unless the team thinks he has a particularly good matchup, as they did in Week 4. In their matchup with the Cowboys, Sweat spent 100% of the time over rookie left tackle Tyler Smith, and it’s possible they do the same against the Bears with fifth-rounder Braxton Jones as their LT. Jones has had issues with elite pass rushers already this year, allowing two sacks to Nick Bosa back in Week 1. With right tackle Larry Borom proving to be a much more stout option, we may expect a lot of Sweat-on-Jones snaps and another long day for the fledgling Justin Fields.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Packers vs. Jets

While A.J. Dillon has been trending down, this only means Aaron Jones is locked in as a top-10 option and this week will be no different. With a healthy David Bakhtiari easing back into the lineup, the Packers have accrued 293 rushing yards over the last two weeks, with Jones accounting for 35 touches and 195 total yards. While the Jets have had a stifling pass rush up to this point, they only rank 22nd in aFPA to the running back position, allowing seven touchdowns on the ground.

An aging Aaron Rodgers remains frustrating to hold on fantasy teams, but the team ranks 23rd in passing% and 21st in pass rate over expectation, instead opting to run a majority of their offense through the running backs, who have buoyed the team up to eighth in explosive rush%. This matches up perfectly against a Jets team that ranks 24th in explosive rush% and allowed an RB fantasy bonanza to the Browns in Week 2 when Nick Chubb led all running backs with his 30.8 half-PPR fantasy points.

Cardinals @ Seahawks

The league’s 30th-ranked rushing defense in terms of adjusted line yards, the Seahawks have allowed the NFL’s most yards on the ground (851) through five weeks, including two 100-yard rushers in Week 5 and fantasy’s RB5 performance to Jamaal Williams in Week 4. On the other side of this matchup, Arizona’s offensive line has surprisingly been performing more than adequately despite making almost no offseason adjustments. They currently rank in the top 12 of the aforementioned adjusted line yards, adjusted sack rate, and QB pressure rate.

The Cardinals’ backfield is all Eno Benjamin’s, as practically the entire running back roster has been put on ice, forcing the team to sign Ty’Son Williams and Corey Clement to the practice squad. Benjamin was given 11 opportunities after James Conner went down with a rib injury, turning them into 53 total yards and a touchdown. There’s not much reason to assume he won’t take the full Conner workload, and as such, he is an easy plug into your RB2 slot.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: