This has been the craziest March Madness I can remember. No #1 seeds even made the Elite 8, and the final four is comprised of a 4-seed, two 5-seeds, and a 9-seed. People are scrambling to figure out why this year is historically different, and my rationale is that there wasn’t a truly dominant team. This is fleshed out by the data as well.
Kenpom uses a metric called “adjusted efficiency margin,” which is essentially how much more efficient your offense and defense are, adjusted for your strength of opponents. The last time there wasn’t a single team over 30 in adjusted efficiency margin was 2006. Most years feature 2-3 teams above 30. This year only has four teams above 25 and none above 30. My point is, the top seeds just weren’t that much better than the others.
Beyond the overall seed outliers, San Diego State is the third-worst offense to make the final four in the past 20 years. Miami has the third-worst defense we have seen in the past 20 years. Both teams are obviously buoyed by the opposite strength (Miami’s offense and San Diego State’s defense).
We have been betting on college basketball sides, totals, and player props in our discord for months! We have Greg (@GHsportsandTech), a professional player prop bettor, Shane (@Sjacksonbet), a knowledgeable college basketball handicapper, and myself all contributing. We’ll be giving our best bets every day of the tournament, initially released in the discord but with daily articles as well.
The easiest way to get access to all of these bets is through our newest partner, which allows you to get a 3-month subscription for just $5! Find out how here!
I’ll continue to update this article leading up to the Final Four as we release more bets in the discord.
