NBA Player Prop Bets: Get Smart With Assists

Feb 27, 2023

NBA Player Prop Bets (February 27, 2023)

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It is a rare small slate for a Monday with only four games, but there are playoff or tank implications in each contest. Noticing how rotations change due to playoff implications can be key to being ahead of the curve, even for a short time.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable start to the week.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 27, 2023)

Marcus Smart Over 5.5 Assists (+100 at BetMGM)

Marcus Smart has been working to reintegrate himself into the first-unit offense for the Celtics—that should be easier tonight with Jaylen Brown out.

Smart has only gone over this number in three games since returning to the lineup, but that was the only game with Brown out, like he is tonight. In six games this season where Jaylen Brown has been out and Smart started, Smart is averaging 7.8 assists on 13.5 potential assists. In the last game before the break, Smart recorded six assists and covered this number, but the potential assist volume was the real winner—15.

Boston is at Madison Square Garden tonight to take on the Knicks and New York is allowing the sixth-most assists to point guards over the last two weeks. Jalen Brunson is a wonderful offensive guard but can't physically bully Smart on the other side—at all—leaving Brunson fairly exposed as a defender. Games lately have been trending over for both of these teams with Celtics games hitting the over in five of their last six contests and the Knicks in four of their last six.

Risk: 1 unit on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)