NBA Player Prop Bets: Poeltl Mystifies the Wizards

Mar 02, 2023

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A small four-game slate is on deck tonight but there are still lines to attack due to the role in a new place, being more involved offensively, or a hot streak paired with a new teammate changing the geometry of how a team functions.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to help in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in the Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable Thursday.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 2, 2023)

Jakob Poeltl Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+155 at DraftKings)

In San Antonio, Jakob Poeltl’s job was to clean up all the messes that the perimeter created. While the Raptors' defense has been underwhelming, that role for Poeltl has gotten easier in Toronto, and the numbers show it.

In seven games with the Raptors, Poeltl has exceeded this number six times and is averaging 3.9 Stocks (the new trendy term for steals and blocks, thanks to Jaren Jackson Jr. controversy). The only time Poeltl went under was in his first game with Toronto, where he only played 16 minutes. Poeltl has averaged 28.8 minutes in the other games with the Raptors and has averaged 4.5 Stocks.

With the Spurs, many more ball handlers or cutters were getting to Poeltl at the basket unimpeded, putting Poeltl in a bad position, even with him being a quality shot blocker. In Toronto, the sheer length and size of other defenders have made it easier on Poeltl, with ball handlers having to work to get to the big man and being more off-balance when facing his contest. All that length has led to more steals because of the deflections guys like OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam can cause.

The Raptors are taking on a Wizards team that has had issues holding onto the ball recently, carrying the second-highest turnover rate over the last two weeks. Much of that has come without their PG, Monte Morris, who is out tonight as well. That leaves Delon Wright and Jonathan Goodwin to run the point, with more playmaking falling on the shoulders of Bradley Beal as well. For being a low-usage big, Daniel Gafford has multiple turnovers in his last three, giving Poeltl an even better chance at this over.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.55 units. (Playable to +125)