NBA Player Prop Bets: Porter Punishes Chicago

Mar 08, 2023

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Usually, caution has been expressed in these articles, but there are times when knowing when to take a stand on a prop or matchup is necessary. The props today are examples of that, with multiple chances to ladder against plus matchups.

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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 8, 2023)

Michael Porter Jr. Over 19.5 Points (+155 at DraftKings)

It is a rare spot to go strong on a player that is the third offensive option on his own team, but this is a unique team in the Nuggets and a unique situation for Porter specifically.

Porter has gone over this number in five of his last seven games and is averaging 20.3 in that time, even with a five-point stinker in there where he only played 18 minutes in a blowout loss at Memphis. In the other six games, he is averaging 23.2. Where Porter has the upside is in his efficiency. Since the all-star break, Porter is shooting 56.4% from the field and 45.5% from behind the arc on 7.3 attempts. In a plus matchup, there could be extra volume.

The matchup is great for Porter because of his ability to be lethal as a spot-up shooter and to attack a closeout. The Bulls are in town, and Chicago is allowing the most three-point attempts in the last two weeks, and a lot of that is due to not being good in rotation and shooters getting open due to good passing. Denver moves the ball as well as anyone, and with Porter not being much of an off-the-dribble threat, he should be the beneficiary of ball movement. In the first matchup, Porter scored 31 and only played 24:11. Denver had their entire starting lineup that game and Porter was still able to get 16 shots in those 24 minutes, showing the Nuggets will feed the hot hand.

Who defends Porter is another question that must be answered by Chicago. If it is Patrick Beverley or Alex Caruso, they are too small to truly affect Porter’s shot, and he does not take the ball off the dribble much, which eliminates their greatest strength. If it is Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan, they would be described as aloof off-ball defenders at best, and Porter should be in line for open shots.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.55 units. (Playable to +130)