NBA Player Prop Bets: The Rise of the Coulibaly
Tonight, we have a nice set of eight NBA games, with The Boston Celtics facing the Philadelphia 76ers, and some high-scoring point totals like the Dallas Mavericks against the Washington Wizards.
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November 15th NBA Player Prop Bets
One of my favorite matchups tonight will be watching a young up-and-coming player in Bilal Coulibaly, facing the Dallas Mavericks in what should be a high-scoring matchup. The Washington Wizards come in as the fastest pace team in the NBA, while the Mavericks are the 6th fastest pace team.
As always, the biggest edge we have in sports betting is news. It is critical to follow the news up to tip off with lots of potential opportunities opening up. Here are a couple of the plays I am looking at for tonight. Join the Discord for the most up-to-date information as the news unfolds.
Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) Over 8.5 Points (+105 DK)
In the past five games, Bilal Coulibaly’s minutes range from 19 to 34 minutes. Interestingly, though, his production is not solely tied to his minutes. Even in the 19-minute game versus the 76ers, his scoring was 10 points, while in his 6-point game versus the Hornets, he played 30 minutes. While his minutes fluctuate a bit, so are his rotations. For some games, he plays a normal backup rotation coming out in the final five minutes of the 1st Quarter, but in other games, like versus the Raptors, Coulibaly played the entire 2nd Quarter. Over the past two games, he came off the bench to start the game but played the entire 4th Quarter in both to close the game. He has been playing alongside Corey Kispert but then stays on the floor while the starters get folded back in. At times, Coulibaly has been staying on the floor over Daniel Gafford. While the rotations and minutes seem to be in flux, one overarching opinion has emerged. The Wizards head coach, Wes Unseld, is making a very real choice to give Coulibaly more minutes.
The bottom line here is that the development of Coulibaly is happening before our eyes. He is going to keep seeing his floor minutes as a backup, with the potential for additional rotations and/or longer rotations. In the past five games, he has cleared this line in four of the five. In the previous eight games, he has cleared this line in six of the eight games. As noted when we played him previously, this line is going to continue to climb. Underneath all of that is his raw talent. Coulibaly is second on the team in true shooting, with 61.6%. He leads the team in three-point shooting with a minimum of three attempts per game, with 43.8%.
Risk 1 unit to win 1.05 unit.
Scottie Barnes (TOR) Over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists (+100 Bet365)
With Dennis Shroder expected to be out (currently questionable), I expect Scottie Barnes to be the main ball handler for the Raptors. While I like his 5.5 Assists line, it is moving too quickly and has seen a lot of line movement with odds out to -150 in some places, merely on the speculation Schroder will be out. The 14.5 Assists + Rebounds is sitting at plus money and gives us better odds with my projection of 6.8 assists and 10.4 rebounds. This gives us plenty of margin to clear the 14.5 line. By attacking this rebounds + assists line, it has enough margin built-in with the Rebounds alone that even if Schroder is available, we can clear this line.
This is a pace-up spot against the Bucks, playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo. There should be a significant pace up here along with an uptick in rebound opportunities for Barnes in this matchup.
Risk 1 unit to win 1 unit.
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