5 Running Backs Who Had Outlier Touchdown Seasons in 2022 - Fantasy Football Studs & Duds

Jun 23, 2023

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In the first part of this series, I uncovered five touchdown outliers at the quarterback position using my expected touchdown model. The introduction in that article lays out the entire methodology for this study but the basic premise is simple—we can find out who scored touchdowns above or below expectation based on the historical touchdown rates for the starting field position of every play. Of course, every play type and each position will have a different expectation.

More 2022 Touchdown Outliers: QB | WR | TE

Calculating touchdown expectation for running backs requires extra work since we are often dealing with a significant number of both carries and targets for a player. The following table lists the touchdown rates for all running back opportunities (carries and targets) over the last three seasons:

RB TD Rates Based on Field Position, 2020–2022
Line of Scrimmage	TD Rate, Rushes	TD Rate, Targets
1–49	0.3%	0.2%
50–41	0.5%	0.3%
40–31	0.8%	1.0%
30–21	1.5%	4.7%
20–16	2.8%	4.6%
15–11	6.4%	12.1%
10–6	10.9%	25.6%
5–1	40.1%	49.5%

For the running back position, this process has been especially useful at pinpointing players that are due for a significant drop in production.

Since 2019, 22 running backs have scored at least two touchdowns over expectation in a single season. Of those 22, just one saw an increase in touchdowns the following year and the group saw a total median dropoff of four touchdowns the next season. There were also 19 backs that scored at least two touchdowns below expectation and 12 of those players increased their touchdowns the next season with a median jump of two scores.

After compiling every opportunity (rushes + targets) for each running back in the league from 2022 (minimum 100 opportunities), I calculated each running back’s touchdown expectation and compared that number to the actual touchdowns that they generated. The differential in those numbers will serve as an indicator for running backs who scored more often or less often than they should have and, in turn, potential studs or duds in 2023.