Best NFL Division Odds Bets for the AFC
Late last week, sportsbooks started releasing odds for division winners. While it can be tough to tie-up money in NFL futures for over ten months, these markets are ripe for finding value. Part of why there is value is the level of uncertainty we have on what these teams will look like by the start of the season, as we haven't even hit free agency yet (and the draft is weeks away). Projecting what these teams will do this offseason is easier for some than others, but we also have a good idea of which teams are even armed with the required resources to make their desired moves.
Yesterday, I covered my favorite division bets for the NFC, and today I will be doing the same for the AFC. To be clear, these are not my picks to win each division, but what I believe to be the best bets in each division. The odds that I used are from FanDuel Sportsbook, but as more books release odds, it is critical to shop around different books to find the best price.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (+220)
This is as much a bet on Lamar Jackson staying with the Ravens as it is anything else. If news were to come out that he was staying, their odds would shorten to be much closer to the division-favorite Cincinnati Bengals (currently at +135). Unfortunately, we don't have that news right now, but here are a couple of other reasons to like the Ravens moving forward. One is that they have a coaching staff that is consistently among the best at making in-game decisions.
Another massive factor is something unpredictable: injuries. The Ravens were in a world of hurt last year, losing the aforementioned Jackson for the last seven games of their season (including their one playoff game). Additionally, they had flourishing receiver Rashod Bateman for less than half the season, JK Dobbins found his way to Injured Reserve for five games in the middle of the year, and Mark Andrews struggled with a knee injury during that same time. Defensively, Justin Houston, Marcus Williams, and Calais Campbell all missed stretches of games throughout the year. Health is not guaranteed, but this much bad luck is bound to revert to the mean a bit in 2023.
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts (+650)
This was probably the most difficult choice. The Jacksonville Jaguars (the easy pick to win the division) opened up around -120, but their odds have already moved 25 cents in their favor to -145, which is currently the third-shortest odds to win a division (behind the Chiefs and 49ers, who are both at -155). I like the Jaguars a lot and think they could have an outstanding year, but their current price is a bit too rich for my blood.
That's partly why I'm going to go with the Indianapolis Colts, and there are several other reasons as well. First, I believe they made a great hire in Shane Steichen to become their head coach. Steichen, the former offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, is coming off of an incredible season. He's also a much better choice than the alternative in Jeff Saturday.
Additionally, it seems all but certain that the Colts will be drafting a quarterback in April's draft. They are currently two spots behind their division rival in the Houston Texans, but depending on who each team drafts and what happens with Ryan Tannehill, the Colts could head into training camp with the second-best quarterback in the division.
Finally, regardless of what you think about the value of running backs, the Colts still have one of the best backs on their team in Jonathan Taylor. Coming off of a season marred with injuries, Taylor should be set to return to his dominating form in 2023, especially if Indianapolis can shore up their offensive line.
AFC East: Miami Dolphins (+410)
The formula for the Dolphins winning the division is two-fold. First, Tua Tagovailoa needs to stay healthy. With the way last season went - suffering two concussions during the season - this is not even close to a guarantee. While he has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to be ready for the start of the 2023 season, one hit could send him back to the bench. But, with Tua, the Dolphins had an elite offense that averaged 0.113 EPA per play (would have ranked second on the season) and a 12.7% explosive pass rate.
The other big factor in the Dolphins' success is fixing the defense, which ranked 24th in EPA per play allowed. This is obviously easier said than done, but bringing in Vic Fangio - one of the premier defensive minds in the league - to be their defensive coordinator is a great first step. Miami has a couple of key, young players on defense, including Xavien Howard, Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb, and Jaelen Phillips that Fangio should be able to optimize.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (-155)
This is one of the few heavy favorites that I am willing to bet, and there's one reason for it: Patrick Mahomes. As long as he is the quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, they will be the frontrunner to win this division (and win the Super Bowl), and I don't ever want to bet against Mahomes. While historical trends don't make the best case, the Chiefs have won the AFC West every year that Mahomes has been the full-time starter and have won the division by at least four games in three of five seasons.
We also saw this past season that even with turnover in offensive personnel (specifically losing Tyreek Hill) that Mahomes can thrive. Kansas City also drafted extremely well on the defensive side of the ball in 2022. So well, that nearly a third of their defensive snaps in the playoffs were played by rookies. An extra year under their belts, and the Chiefs should have a defense solid enough to put them in the driver's seat for the AFC West title for the eighth-straight season.
