Best NFL Division Odds Bets for the NFC

Mar 06, 2023

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Late last week, sportsbooks started releasing odds for division winners. While it can be tough to tie-up money in NFL futures for over ten months, these markets are ripe for finding value. Part of why there is value is the level of uncertainty we have on what these teams will look like by the start of the season, as we haven't even hit free agency yet (and the draft is weeks away). Projecting what these teams will do this offseason is easier for some than others, but we also have a good idea of which teams are even armed with the required resources to make their desired moves.

Starting off with the NFC, I will be giving my favorite bet to make on each division winner. To be clear, these are not my picks to win each division, but what I believe to be the best bets in each division. The odds that I used are from FanDuel Sportsbook, but as more books release odds it is critical to shop around different books to find the best price.

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings (+300)

It was no secret that the Vikings were a bit fraudulent last year. They finished the season 13-4 despite a -3 point differential and failed to win their only playoff game against the Giants. However, markets seem to be overreacting to how much Minnesota will be regressing. Their defense, which ranked 16th in defensive EPA per play and is losing some key players, will need to pick up some slack to compete in the NFC. That said, there's a chance that the Vikings enter the season with the best quarterback in the division and will for sure have the best non-quarterback (Justin Jefferson).

Re-tooling will be difficult for Minnesota as they only have five draft picks this year (tied for the fewest in the league) and are still about $15 million over the cap. Even with that, the odds for this division should be a lot flatter across the Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Green Bay Packers, all of whom have their flaws. Minnesota shouldn't need another 13-win season to capture this division, but they definitely have enough offensive firepower and coaching smarts to win the NFC North for the second-straight year.