Marquise Brown: A High-Risk, High-Reward Fantasy Football Experiment

For the past few years, fantasy managers have been living a "What might have been?" phase with Marquise Brown. In 2020 and 2021, he posted target shares north of 26.0%, both top-10 marks in the NFL, but factors outside of his control didn't allow him to reach his true potential. He was plagued by passing volume in 2020 when the Ravens finished 32nd in team pass attempts. In 2021, the breakout season was almost complete until former quarterback Lamar Jackson was injured in Week 14.

Brown was well on his way to being a fantasy football darling this past year, ranking as the WR11 in half-PPR PPG over the first six weeks of the season until a foot injury forced him to miss time. When he finally returned, the wheels had completely fallen off in Arizona and he was able to play just half a game with Kyler Murray before Murray succumbed to a torn ACL.

Brown has completely eradicated any questions about his first-round selection back in 2019, but we've yet to see Brown reach his full potential. Unfortunately, with Murray still rehabbing and likely to miss the first few weeks of the 2023 season, that may not happen this year either, but his price reflects that enough to make Brown a solid value for fantasy managers, as long as Murray returns within a reasonable timeframe.

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Confronting Our Short-Term Memory About Marquise Brown

The way the past two seasons have ended has put a sour taste in the mouths of those who have rostered Hollywood Brown, but if we look at what he's done when he and his quarterback are healthy, we can get an accurate depiction of who he is.

In 2021, his per-game averages put him on pace for 153 targets, 99 receptions, 1,268 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns. This past year, during the seven games he played with Murray, he was on pace for 175 targets, 119 receptions, 1,290 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns. With the release of DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, Brown is positioned well to reprise his role as Arizona's No. 1 option in the passing game and certified target hog.

While his numbers in the most relevant fantasy football statistics above are fantastic, it's worth mentioning he's been one of the more efficient receivers, as well. This indicates it isn't all just volume for him. After all, in 2021 he was still competing for targets alongside elite tight end, Mark Andrews. When we look at his efficiency metrics over the past two seasons with his team's primary starting quarterback, we begin to see a receiver that deserves more recognition as one of the better players in the NFL.

Over the past two full seasons, his air yards per game average would have ranked inside the top 10. His yard per route run and target per route run average would've both been in the top 30 in both seasons among receivers with at least 50 targets. This kind of high-level play shows up not only in the numbers but in the film study, as well. In a recent dynasty piece written by Matt Harmon at Reception Perception, you can see just how dominant he's been at getting open. While his 2022 Reception Perception is not yet available, based on his evaluations from the past, there's no reason not to expect more of the same.

Marquise Brown Without His Starting Quarterback

Unlike 2021 and 2022 when it would have been impossible to predict injuries, fantasy managers are well aware of the fact that Murray is likely to miss the first few weeks of the season. This is reflected in Brown's price, as fantasy managers gauge the risk of Brown's play when he's been forced to play with backup quarterbacks.

The numbers above are terrifyingly low and definitely present a red flag for fantasy managers looking to invest in Hollywood this season. It should be noted that in three of the five games during the 2022 sample, DeAndre Hopkins was present and had a 27.7% target share and averaged 11.0 targets per game. Brown's snaps per game also dropped by 10%, compared to his pre-injury snap rate with Murray active—this indicates that Brown may not have been 100% yet. While his targets per game stayed relatively high, his efficiency fell off a cliff.

Projecting Kyler Murray's Return

Looking at what Brown has provided with Murray and Jackson vs Colt McCoy and Tyler Huntley makes Murray's return date the most crucial piece of this puzzle. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, we're left speculating when that might be. We can look at former quarterbacks who suffered torn ACLs for guidance. DeShaun Watson tore his in November of 2014 while at Clemson and started in their first game of the season on September 5th, 2015. Carson Wentz also tore his ACL in December of 2017 and only missed the first two games of the following season. However, each case is different and while these examples may paint a rosier picture than expected, the truth is we really don't know.

I have Kyler Murray coming back around week 5.

Still due for fantasy point regression due to lack of rushing projected early on. But could turn into a league winner by ~Thanksgiving, late season. https://t.co/BGkGsKS3eR

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) June 13, 2023

A Week 5 return would likely mean a PUP appearance for Murray, ensuring he misses the first four games of the season. Typically, ACL recovery has a 9–12 month timeline from the date of surgery. Murray had his surgery in early January, which means if he returns in Week 5, he'd be right around the 10-month mark. That is a reasonable expectation considering that in recent years, players have generally not needed a full year to recover. Under this projection, fantasy managers would expect Hollywood to struggle in the first 5–6 weeks of the season before Murray returns and knocks off the dust.

Fortunately, unlike 2020 and 2021, Brown would be getting his starting quarterback for the second half of the season and the fantasy football playoffs, increasing his value as opposed to losing value like the past two seasons. Fantasy managers are more capable of handling Brown's poor performance in the early portion of the season because it would come before bye weeks and theoretically, before injuries run rampant as the season rolls along.

Marquise Brown's 2023 Fantasy Outlook

Brown is currently ranked as the WR27 at 4for4, indicating that he is a good value compared to his WR32 ADP. Murray's injury and the way Brown has closed the last two seasons—albeit not really his fault—is causing fantasy managers to be extremely cautious with him. However, he's proven to be a very good and effective fantasy asset and he's in an excellent position to be one of the most heavily targeted receivers in the league. Even if fantasy managers need to wait 5–6 weeks for the true Hollywood to show up, he could be an excellent value down the stretch.

Bottom Line

• Over the past two seasons, when his starting quarterback has been on the field, Brown has performed as a top-12 receiver.
• His per-game averages during those samples are that of an elite receiver.
• Brown has been a Reception Perception favorite with an excellent film review ever since his rookie season.
• Brown has struggled mightily with backup quarterbacks the past two seasons and is likely to start very slow due to the absence of Murray.
• Murray seems likely to miss the first 4–5 weeks of the season but should be ready by mid-season.
• His WR32 price tag more than considers the risks associated with Murray's injury and makes him a value right now based on our rankings at 4for4.