NBA Player Prop Bets: Brown on the Boards in Boston

Apr 05, 2023

Emilee Chinn/Getty Images

Editors note:

Picture: Jaylen Brown

With the last week of the season bringing in many different player combinations than have been seen most of the season, being able to find any clue of how a player’s role may change or minutes may increase with teammates out of the lineup can be a window into possible smash spots. That is the case with two of the props today.

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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (April 5, 2023)

Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (+112 at FanDuel)

The last week of the season is a critical time to know team motivations and injury report patterns. Those point in favor of a larger workload for Jaylen Brown.

The Boston Celtics are all but locked into the two seed in the East and have little to play for over their last three games. In a back-to-back situation, Jayson Tatum played, and Brown sat last night, but today Brown is given the clean bill of health, with Tatum listed as questionable. In late November, on a back-to-back with the Wizards and Hornets, Tatum sat the first game, and Brown sat the second. It makes sense that this would be the case tonight as well.

In five games missed by Tatum where Brown played, Brown is averaging 10.6 rebounds on 15.6 rebounding chances and has gone over this prop. Boston is a team that is happy to have their wings grab and go, so with Tatum not in the lineup to take many of those chances, Brown has taken that role offensively and on the glass. Al Horford is out as well, leaving Robert Williams to start, and he has shown a willingness to channel his inner Steven Adams and be deferential on the rebound for a guard or wing.

One of those five games was against the opponent tonight, the Raptors, and in that game, Brown had eight rebounds on 12 rebounding chances. Even with their size across the board, Toronto has only been in the middle third of teams in preventing rebounds to SFs. The added minutes and assertiveness needed from Brown in this game make the ceiling very high, and a prop that is much closer to his floor.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.12 units. (Playable to -110)