Week 10 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Cowboys Ride High at Home

Nov 08, 2023

Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

We have one huge favorite In Week 10 along with some really solid teams on their bye, so this should be an interesting week in both survivor and pick’em contests. With the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, I’ll select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

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Week 9 Recap

My picks went 3-2 last week, with the Browns, Ravens, and Saints all coming on top, while the Falcons failed to get it done along with the Cowboys. That brings my total so far to 15-7 since starting this column in Week 5.

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 10 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 10 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

Dallas Cowboys vs. Giants

This game almost seems unfair with a red-hot Dak Prescott and company taking on a New York team with either Tommy DeVito or Matt Barkley under center. The spread is a massive 16 points with 92% Vegas odds for Dallas to prevail. As always with these lopsided contests, you’ll win or lose with your entire pool as 99% of bettors are taking the Cowboys this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Packers

The Steelers' defense should shut down the Jordan Love-led Green Bay attack with ease, while on the other side of the ball, the run game should keep Pittsburgh afloat. The home team is a three-point favorite with 62% odds to win via Vegas. The public is rolling with the Steelers 93% of the time despite the lower win odds, so you’ll be in the same boat with your pool mates.

*Bonus Favorite: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston

Sensibly Priced Favorite

Detroit Lions @ Chargers

The Lions had a week to rest for this West Coast trip with their offense at full strength. This contest could be a shootout, as it features the highest over/under of the week (48.5), but give me Dan Campbell over Brandon Staley.

Detroit is a 2.5-point road favorite with 55% win odds via both Vegas and PoolGenius. Currently, only 77% of the public is backing the Lions so there’s some separation possible.

Underdog Gamble

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jets

The Jets are traveling on a short week and will face an invigorated Raiders squad under interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Vegas is a home underdog by 1.5 points with just 49% PoolGenius odds to come out on top. I like the Raiders to win with a more run-heavy approach with rookie Aidan O'Connell doing just enough to make it happen. Only 62% of pickers are taking Las Vegas this week, so there is plenty of value in this selection.

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Survivor Picks for Week 10

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 10 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Cowboys vs. Giants (92%, 16-point favorites)
Bills vs. Broncos (77%, 7.5-point favorites)
Bengals vs. Texans (73%, 7-point favorites)
Seahawks vs. Commanders (71%, 6-point favorites)
Ravens vs. Browns (71%, 6-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 10 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):