Week 10 NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Player Props

Nov 09, 2023

Joe Rondone-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, we finally cashed the 4for4 Week 9 Vivid Picks boost! After a few weeks of missing by a leg, we hit an 11x play. We had to run it back this week with another 4-leg play!

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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also, join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.

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Week 10 Vivid Picks Plays

Aiden O'Connell under 207.5 passing yards

We will likely see the Raiders go run-heavy with Interim HC Antonio Pierce saying he wants to establish the run. I also don’t expect the Jets to get up and push the Raiders into throwing a bunch in negative game script.

On top of game state lending towards a passing under, this is a brutally tough matchup with both DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner locking down the outsides. The Jets have only allowed 3-of-8 QBs to throw for more than 205 yards against them, and Gardner/Reed missed the game against Philly.

I thought this would drop at 190, and I would play it to 195.

Breece Hall over 63.5 rushing yards

Sticking in the same game, I expect the Jets to remain committed to the run here with Breece Hall. He has dominated the team touches in recent weeks, and while that hasn’t necessarily turned into production, he draws a ripe matchup this week.

The Raiders have allowed a running back to clear 63 rushing yards in 77% of games this season, with the only teams missing being near even timeshares. Even dust balls like AJ Dillon, Joshua Kelley, and Najee Harris ran for more than 63 yards against the Raiders.

Will Levis over 220.5 passing yards

Levis has been uneven as a starter but draws a great matchup this week. The Bucs suffered multiple injuries and haven’t been able to recover. They have allowed a 72.8% completion rate and 9.2 yards per the last four weeks. This is a great matchup for Levis to explode.

Ja’Marr Chase over 86.5 receiving yards

It looks like Chase is going to play while Tee Higgins is going to sit this week. Regardless, the Bengals draw an awesome matchup against the Texans, who have not played as well as of late and were just burned by Baker Mayfield and company last week. Coming out of the bye, the Bengals have used play action nearly 30% of the time, and the Texans have been among the worst at defending play action this season.