Friday Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 22, 2023

Friday Single-Game DFS: Dolphins at Jets

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for the first annual Black Friday game, an AFC East matchup between the soaring Dolphins and the floundering Jets, who have finally, mercifully, made a change at quarterback. But not before their playoff chances have shrunk into single-digit probabilities. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have an outside chance at securing the number one seed in the AFC and get a scheduling gift with two games remaining against these aimless, hapless Jets. Let’s break down this lopsided slate and see if we can uncover some hidden gems for single-game DFS players.

Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Dolphins (-10, 25) @ Jets (+10, 15); Over/Under 40

The Jets play with little-to-no urgency at all, despite knowing they’ll need fluke scores in order to produce anything offensively. They’re technically above average in pass rate during neutral game scripts, but they’re never in neutral game scripts. The team is bottom three in the NFL with an average score differential of -5.4 points. The Jets are below average in deep passes per game and well below average in red zone passes per game, mostly because they never make it there. The Jets average a historically bad 0.9 offensive touchdowns per game, by far the worst rate in the NFL, and it’s not going to get any better with Tim Boyle under center.

Miami, meanwhile, plays uptempo and passes slightly higher than the NFL average, averaging over 34 passes per play. Unlike the Jets, they’ve enjoyed a top-10 average score differential, and rank well above average in both deep pass attempts and red zone pass attempts per game. While they’ve slipped to ninth in offensive touchdowns per game over the last three weeks, their season-long rate remains the best of any offense in the NFL. The Jets defense, the only functioning unit in New York, presents a tough, test as they rank best in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing receiving corps and the ninth least aFPA to opposing offenses this season.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE) represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

The Jets will move from worst to worst-ever with a switch at the quarterback position this Sunday. Boyle has thrown 23 passes since the 2021 season, where he averaged an unbelievably poor 3.4 adjusted yards per attempt. He averaged just 18 pass attempts and 117 air yards in three starts and was intercepted six times in that span. He has had one game of more than 15 fantasy points in his career, passing for 262 yards and two scores (along with three interceptions) against the Seahawks in Week 17 of 2021. This is the absolute ceiling performance we can hope for with Boyle under center. Less than 10 fantasy points should be expected.

Tua Tagovailoa, despite a recent dip in efficiency, still has season-long metrics that rival the best quarterbacks in the NFL, ranking top five in true drive success rate and in EPA per game, and best in the NFL in completion percentage vs. expectation. While he certainly benefits from Mike McDaniel’s inventive offensive schemes. Tagovailoa has the third-best AYA and true passer rating in the league. He’s 15th in expected fantasy points per game (xFP) and has outperformed expectations by an average of 3.0 points per game. He’s absolutely an MVP candidate at this point in the season.