Week 12 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 26, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Ravens at Chargers

Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 12 Sunday Night Football, where the Baltimore Ravens travel west to face the struggling Los Angeles Chargers. The Ravens, sitting at 8-3 and leading the AFC North, pit their run-focused offense and solid defensive play against a Chargers team that, despite being last in the AFC West with a 4-6 record, boast a positive score differential of +26, hinting at a team much more talented than their metrics or record suggests. High-profile injuries on both sides add another layer of complexity to this matchup, with Joey Bosa on IR for the Chargers, and with the Ravens playing their first game without star tight end Mark Andrews. With that in mind, let's dive into the best DFS strategies for this exciting Sunday night slate.

Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Ravens (-3, 25.5) @ Chargers (+3, 22.5 ); Over/Under 48.5

Baltimore comes into this game favored by 3 points and with a healthy implied total of 25.5. Their offense is characterized by a run-heavy approach, ranking 31st in pass plays per game in a league where aerial attacks tend to dominate. Despite this, they maintain a league-average pace of play, though their overall numbers are skewed by their league-leading score differential of +7.5. The Ravens’ deep passing and red zone attempts rank slightly below average, but the team still averages 3.1 offensive touchdowns per game, tied for fourth best in the league. With the Chargers' defense ranking outside the top 25 in both pass and rush defense DVOA and 27th in yards allowed per pass attempt, the Ravens might lean slightly more on their passing game, though they’re comfortable all game long if it’s working for them.

The Chargers embrace a more aerial-focused approach, ranking ninth in pass plays per game and 4th in overall pace. Their offense is understandably built around quarterback Justin Herbert's arm (though he can run effectively as well when called upon). They rank in the top 10 in both deep passes and red zone passes per game, emphasizing a consistently aggressive pass-first strategy. Despite their struggles in the standings, they average 2.9 offensive touchdowns per game, good for eighth in the league. Facing a Ravens defense that ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA, 7th in rush defense DVOA, and third-toughest in aFPA to opposing offenses, the Chargers certainly have the tougher of the defensive matchups in this contest.

Quarterback Analysis

^{_{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Lamar Jackson has maintained top-10 efficiency metrics across the board this season. He ranks seventh in completion percentage vs expectation, sixth in true drive success rate, and seventh in EPA per game. His prowess in the air is complemented by continued rushing opportunity, as he’s third among quarterbacks with an average of 9.2 rush attempts per game and second with 2.5 red zone rushes per game. Despite these strong opportunity and efficiency stats, Jackson's fantasy points per game rank 10th among quarterbacks, slightly underperforming his expected fantasy points per game. But the deeper we look, the more impressive Jackson’s stats get. He’s ninth in QBR, 11th in true passer rating, and fourth in catchable pass rate. Facing the Chargers' underperforming defense, Jackson emerges as a clear positive reversion candidate and could break out in a big way this Sunday.

Meanwhile, Justin Herbert’s completion percentage vs expectation is league-average but is impacted by a receiving corps that ranks fifth in the NFL in drops despite a top-10 catchable pass rate. Herbert’s true drive success rate indicates a player more than capable of turning drives into scores and an above-average clip, and Herbert ranks just ahead of Jackson in EPA per game, 6th best in the NFL. He’s seventh in AYA and third in QBR, more signs of an unquestionably elite talent. Herbert, not typically known for his rushing upside, remains effective on the ground, and now ranks 13th in carries per game and in the top 10 in red zone carries per game, adding three rushing touchdowns to his top-three passing touchdown totals.