Week 12 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 27, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Bears at Vikings

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Week 12 showdown breakdown for the Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings. This game carries significant weight for both teams. The Vikings, currently the NFC's sixth seed, have an opportunity to gain crucial ground in the NFC North after Detroit's Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers, while the Bears look to climb out of the divisional basement and improve on a meager 3-8 record. This is shaping up to be an interesting slate for single-game DFS players. Let's dig into the top plays and key lineup-building strategies for this Monday night.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Bears (+3, 20.5) @ Vikings (-3, 23.5); Over/Under 44.0

The Bears showcase a highly competitive offense when their starring quarterback is active. While they pass less and play slower than league average during neutral game scripts, there’s still a lot to like about the Bears' offense and their ceiling potential. Especially with Justin Fields active, Chicago has demonstrated the ability to turn drives into scores fairly consistently. Fields takes limited deep and red zone passing attempts, averaging only 3.6 attempts per game in both categories, placing him in the bottom five for high-leverage volume in the league. However, when Fields does opt for deep throws, he's highly accurate, boasting a top-six catchable pass rate on passes over 20 air yards, again pointing to big play potential.

The Vikings come into this game with a more balanced and consistent offensive approach than the pass-heavy scheme they showcased with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Joshua Dobbs, despite a loss in Week 11, has immediately steadied the ship for Minnesota, with a drive success rate among the best in the NFL since taking over in the first quarter of Week 8. However, their deep passing volume remains below average, which limits their explosive play potential for players like Jordan Addison but doesn’t rule them out entirely.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Justin Fields' metrics show a player capable of consistently efficient performances, but due to several factors, he hasn't put it all together this season. Fields ranks around the league average in completion percentage versus expectation and in Expected Points Added (EPA) per game. However, his top-five ranking in true drive success rate indicates strong play on a per-drive basis that may be hindered by external factors. Sure enough, Bears receivers have struggled all season long with an inability to create separation (30th in the NFL). Turnovers have hurt the offense as well.

Fields’ rushing value makes him arguably the highest floor player on the slate, with 9.3 rushes per game ranking second among all quarterbacks, and 1.4 red zone carries per game ranking seventh. Fields leads the position at 48.7 rush yards per game. He’s 10th in expected fantasy points (xFP) per game and 12th in fantasy points per game this season. The Vikings' defense has been stronger against the run than the pass, ranking fourth in yards allowed per carry and ninth in rush defense DVOA. They’re bottom 10 in aFPA to wide receivers and tight ends, another signal of ceiling potential.

Since being traded from Arizona to Minnesota, Dobbs ranks eighth in true drive success rate, a clear sign he should be able to consistently lead the Vikings on scoring drives through the remainder of the season. Dobbs averages 3.5 deep throws per game, which is slightly below league average, but he compensates with significant overall red zone involvement. Dobbs averages 5.1 red zone passes or quarterback rushes per game, a number that has only increased since his move to the Vikings.

He now has a rushing touchdown in five straight games, while his 35.4 rush yards per game and six rushing touchdowns both rank top five among quarterbacks. Dobbbs’ passing numbers have been respectable as well, as he’s up to 14th in QBR and 11th in fantasy points per dropback, and now ranks just inside the top 10 in expected fantasy points per game. Chicago’s defense has been average against opposing receiving corps but struggled particularly against tight ends, where the Vikings, of course, are particularly strong. The Bears rank fifth-worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the position