Week 13 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 30, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Seahawks at Cowboys

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to Showdown breakdown for Week 13 Thursday Night Football, which features an exciting matchup between the Seahawks and Cowboys. This game is pivotal for both teams, with the Seahawks sitting at 6-5, second in the NFC West, and the Cowboys at 8-3 and currently holding the NFC’s fifth seed. The absence of Kenneth Walker, due to an oblique injury, is a significant blow for Seattle, thrusting Zach Charbonnet into the limelight as the primary ballcarrier once again, but that is the only major injury for either squad heading into this matchup. Let's delve into this one and uncover some key strategies for dominating this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Seahawks (+9.5, 19) @ Cowboys (-9.5, 28.5); Over/Under 47.5

The Cowboys come into this game with an implied total of 28.5 points, with a game plan that is typically characterized by slightly above-average passing in neutral scripts, that really ramps up in the red zone, where they lead the NFL with 6.4 pass attempts per game. Their deep passing game, with Prescott attempting 4.5 passes of 20-plus air yards per game, also ranks top ten. Their overall pace of play is 31st in the league, but that metric is skewed by their second-highest average score differential. Over the last three weeks, they’ve averaged a league-high 5.0 touchdowns per game.

The Seahawks tend to mirror Dallas with a pass-moderate approach, but they don’t ramp up passing in high-leverage situations like Dallas, and maintain an average tempo in neutral game scripts. Geno Smith’s stats reflect this trend as he's 20th in the NFL in pass plays per game, and only slightly better-than-average in deep pass attempts and red zone attempts at 3.8 and 4.4 per game, respectively. Seattle's pass yards per game are just average, and their scoring efficiency has dipped precipitously. They’re fourth-worst in the NFL in touchdown scoring over their last three games, averaging just 1.0 per game during this period.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Over the last three weeks, Dak Prescott stands out as arguably the NFL's top-performing quarterback. He ranks fifth in completion percentage versus expectation and leads the league in both true drive success rate and EPA per game during this period. His season-long performance is equally noteworthy as Prescott ranks fifth in fantasy points per dropback and fourth in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYA). He’s second in the league in EPA, passing touchdowns, and Total Quarterback Rating (QBR). He’s averaging a respectable 3.1 rushes per game, 25th among quarterbacks, but ranks inside the top 20 in red zone carries per game, contributing to two scores on the ground as well. Prescott is best in the NFL in plays charted as requiring exceptional skill or athleticism, labeled as “Money Throws”.

Geno Smith's performance ranks below average in several key metrics over the course of the season’s middle third. He’s outside the top 18 signal callers in completion percentage versus expectation, true drive success rate, and EPA per game. His season-long numbers reflect a steep decline from 2022, as he ranks 25th in fantasy points per dropback and 17th in total QBR. He’s also outside the top 30 quarterbacks in red zone accuracy ratings, contributing to Seattle’s scoring woes. He’s best in play-action scenarios, ranking top five in completion percentage when Seattle uses it, but that’s essentially where the good metrics end for Smith. He’s 32nd among all active quarterbacks this season in carries per game and unsurprisingly is without a ground score. Smith has thrown the sixth most passes charted as interceptable in the NFL this season.