Week 14 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 07, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Patriots at Steelers

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 14 Thursday Night Football, featuring whatever the opposite of a barn-burner is between the Patriots and Steelers. This matchup isn't anticipated to be a showcase of well-played football. The Steelers, at 7-5, are paradoxically positioned as the AFC’s fifth seed despite a -37 point differential, which is coincidentally fifth-worst in the conference. The Patriots, at 2-10 and readying for an offseason of major revamps, have moved to Bailey Zappe over Mac Jones at quarterback, and folks, the expectations are low. New England currently holds the number two spot in the 2024 draft, which would be significantly more valuable than a Week 14 win. Let’s break down this mess of a slate from a single-game DFS perspective.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Patriots (+6, 12) @ Steelers (-6, 18); Over/Under 30

The total for this game sits at 30.0. The Steelers are favored by six at home with an implied total of 18 measly points, but the bigger story is just how little scoring’s expected. This is the lowest over/under of any game since December 26, 1993, when three separate games had totals under 30 due to a ferocious cold snap affecting the central and eastern U.S. This game marks the lowest total for an NFL game unaffected by weather since at least 1978.

The Patriots, marred by an abysmal -5.6 average score differential, are among the NFL's worst teams in multiple facets of the game. They rarely find themselves in the red zone and only attempt deep passes 1–3 times per game. With top running back Rhamondre Stevenson out, Ezekiel Elliott might see upwards of 20 opportunities, albeit potentially at a very low yards-per-touch average. The Patriots' overall approach is conservative, uninventive, and almost entirely reactive, given their usual position of playing from behind.

The Steelers, embracing a slow and conservative style themselves for much of the year, haven't found much offensive rhythm, especially with Pickett going down in last week’s bad loss to Arizona. With Mitch Trubisky now under center, the team will likely lean heavily on their running game and defense. Pittsburgh's offense is characterized by a reluctance for deep throws, and they sit bottom seven in pass plays per game. Despite a -3.6 average score differential, it still doesn’t affect their tempo, as they’re 26th in average pace of play.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Both quarterbacks have played abysmally so far this season. According to PlayerProfiler, over 5% of each of the quarterbacks’ throws have been deemed interceptable. Yes, the sample size is limited for them both. Still, both quarterbacks are more than a standard deviation worse than the average quarterback in all three key metrics we weigh heaviest when evaluating quarterbacks.

They are both outside the top 40 in completion percentage vs expected and in true drive success rate. And in EPA per game, Zappe doesn’t even crack the top 45 starters this season (Trubisky doesn’t crack 40 again, either). Trubisky currently has a passer rating of 15.9, which is half the passer rating he would have if he just threw the ball in the dirt for every attempt. There’s no need to go further into the stats here. They’ll have to rush more often than we expect, or completely outplay their metrics to have anything close to a ceiling performance. This could wind up being avert-your-eyes-level quarterback play.