Week 15 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: We Love LA

Dec 13, 2023

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

This week we get one huge spread and a cluster of closer matchups as we head down the stretch of the NFL regular season. Last week was ruled by underdogs, which added some spice and possibly pain to the pick’em world.

Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

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Season Discounts For 2023

Week 14 Recap

As I mentioned above, underdogs prevailed last week and my only win was the Saints, as the Dolphins, Texans, and Packers all fell short. My record is now 28-15 since starting this column in Week 5.

Favorite Favorites

Miami Dolphins vs. Jets

The Dolphins sunk me last week but I am going back to the well here at home against the Jets. This contest was a 34-13 Miami victory earlier this season and despite the Jets playing better football, the Dolphins have too many offensive weapons for New York to keep pace with. The spread is 8.5 here with 80% PoolGenius odds for a Miami win. The public is picking the home team 97% of the time so you’ll win or lose this with your pool.

LA Rams vs. Commanders

Washington is returning from a bye but just doesn’t have enough juice to compete with the Rams who are playing inspired football. This could turn into a shootout but L.A. comes out on top. The Rams are 6.5-point favorites at home with Vegas odds of winning currently 73%. Public bettors are rolling with Matthew Stafford and Company 96% of the time so you know the drill.

Sensibly Priced Favorites

New Orleans Saints vs. Giants

The Saints broke a three-game skid with a large win over the Panthers in Week 14 and should keep it going on Sunday. Rookie QB Tommy DeVito on a short week against a strong New Orleans defense won’t turn out well for New York on the road. The home team is favored by six points with 67% win odds via PoolGenius. The public is backing the Saints just 82% of the time so there’s some value in the selection.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Vikings

The Vikings have a new QB at the helm in Nick Mullens and could be without both Justin Jefferson and Alexander Mattison. Jake Browning has an impressive 82% completion percentage over the last two weeks with plenty of weapons to toss the rock to. The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites at home and with only 85% of the public on board, this pick presents some value this week.

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Survivor Picks for Week 15

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 15 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

San Francisco 49ers @ Cardinals (88%, 14-point favorites)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Patriots (79%, 9-point favorites)
Miami Dolphins vs. Jets (79%, 8.5-point favorites)
L.A. Rams vs. Commanders (73%, 6.5-point favorites)
New Orleans Saints vs. Giants (70%, 6-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 15 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):

Rams vs. Commanders (29%)
Falcons @ Panthers (11%)
Chiefs @ Patriots (9%)
49ers @ Cardinals (8%)
Saints vs. Giants (7%)

Future Value

The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 15, you won’t be able to use them later. According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool: