Week 15 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 16, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Ravens at Jaguars

Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 15 Sunday Night Football, featuring a possible playoff preview between the Ravens and the Jaguars. Baltimore, leading the AFC North and the conference at 10-3, is looking to hold off the Dolphins and Chiefs. The Jaguars, at 8-5 and leading the AFC South, are tied for third in the conference with the Chiefs and Browns themselves. Let’s dive into the key plays and strategies for this exciting single-game DFS slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Ravens (-3.5, 23.25) @ Jaguars (+3.5, 19.75); Over/Under 42

Baltimore plays at an average pace but with a significantly higher-than-average rushing tendency during neutral game scripts. This approach is exacerbated by their best average score differential—they rarely are in game scripts where they need to push the temp0. They’re 29th in overall pass plays per game as well. While Lamar Jackson has been highly efficient this season, he throws fewer deep pass attempts and red zone pass attempts per game than league average. And yet, they are one of only six teams averaging three offensive touchdowns per game this season.

On the other side, Jacksonville has played at a slightly faster pace with a marginally higher tendency to pass during neutral game scripts. They typically downshift their tempo when playing with a lead, ranking 15th in overall pace. The Jaguars are 11th in team pass plays per game, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence throwing deep 4.2 times per game, slightly above the league average. However, their red zone approach is fairly conservative, with Lawrence averaging just 3.6 attempts per game inside the 20. The Jaguars' 2.5 offensive touchdowns per game ranks eighth, though they’re in for one of their toughest tests on offense against the Ravens’ swarming defensive front.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Jackson has been performing at an elite level of late. He’s top 10 in true drive success rate, Expected Points Added (EPA) per game, and completion percentage vs expectation (CPOE), and his efficiency has been even better over the last three weeks. He ranks second in completion percentage inside the red zone, while also being an equally lethal threat on the ground, especially near the goal line. He averages 9.5 carries per game, including over two per game in the red zone. He’s averaging 49.5 rushing yards per game, ranking him second in the NFL among quarterbacks. He’s top five in rushing touchdowns stand and in fantasy points per dropback The Jaguars rank 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks.

Trevor Lawrence ranks middle of the road this season in true drive success rate, though that number has risen significantly of late. It’s subsequently increased his EPA per game to well above average. Lawrence is eighth in CPOE. Lawrence typically contributes with his legs as well, though an ankle injury from two weeks ago might have an impact on his rushing frequency. He’s currently 12th in carries per game and 16th in rush yards per game among quarterbacks, adding four rushing touchdowns to his 17 passing touchdowns. Lawrence has been overly aggressive at times this season, ranking fifth in passes charted as interceptable by PlayerProfiler. This propensity for risk-taking could be a major detriment against a Ravens defense that boasts a top-10 pass defense DVOA and is ranked 14th in aFPA to quarterbacks.