Week 16 Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 20, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Saints at Rams

Alex Gallardo-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 16 Thursday Night Football, a pivotal NFC clash between the Saints and Rams. Both teams, sitting at 7-7, are ensnared in a battle for the final Wild Card spots in the NFC. The Saints, with an outside shot at the NFC South title, while the Rams only have the Wild Card route available. With both teams getting healthier and in a must-win scenario, we could be in for one of the season's best Thursday Night Football slates. Let’s dig into the key players and strategies for single-game DFS players.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Saints (20.5) @ Rams (24.5); Over/Under 45

The Saints, with an implied total of 20.25 points, almost always present a unique game environment for their opponents. Offensively, they exhibit a slightly faster-than-average pace, but pass at a below-average rate, but only in neutral game scripts. They then pick up the pass rate if they discover their above-average defense can’t hold. It’s not surprising then that quarterback Derek Carr ranks seventh in pass plays per game. The Saints also increase their pass rate in the red zone, averaging 4.3 attempts per game, top 12 in the NFL. Their 4.4 deep passes per game are also top 12. However, touchdowns often funnel towards the running back position, predominantly Alvin Kamara, and occasionally to do-everything player Taysom Hill. This unique distribution has resulted in Carr ranking 18th in passing touchdowns, and the team 19th in offensive touchdowns per game.

In contrast, the Rams play at a slightly slower pace than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, with just a league-average pass rate. Their point differential of -0.6 is also quite average, 14th in the NFL. Matthew Stafford's game has evolved, with 4.3 deep attempts per game, placing him in the top 12, but no longer top five like some seasons past. His 5.3 red zone passes per game are still in the top five this season. The Rams average 2.4 offensive touchdowns per game, eighth-best in the league, but have surged to 3.3 touchdowns per game over the last three games, third-best in the NFL.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Carr's season has been characterized by sacrificing explosive plays for the sake of a higher-than-average completion percentage, which is good enough to win games made competitive by a strong defense, but not in a shootout environment where you simply need to out-score your opponent. Carr predictably ranks in the top 10 in completion percentage vs. expectation, but hovers around the league average in metrics like true drive success rate and Expected Points Added (EPA) per game. This forces the Saints to rely more heavily on field goals (and defense) than they should, and it ultimately costs the Saints wins. Carr ranks 19th in adjusted yards per attempt (AYA) and 23rd in QBR, and offers limited value with his legs, averaging only 1.9 carries per game. The typical quarterback rushing opportunities have been all but entirely taken by Taysom Hill, particularly in goal-line situations.

On the other side, Stafford appears to have overcome the thumb injury he suffered six weeks ago, evidenced by his extremely efficient performances in his last three games. He’s thrown for 250-plus passing yards in each of his last three games, after failing to do so in the five games preceding. In this recent span, he’s thrown eight touchdowns without a single interception. Stafford now ranks seventh in QBR, eighth in AYA, and ninth in true completion percentage. Unlike Carr, Stafford's approach is more aggressive, focusing much more on scoring touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. Stafford actually sits slightly below league-average in completion percentage vs expectation but ranks top 10 in EPA per game. He’s even better (fourth) in true drive success rate.