Week 17 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 31, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Packers at Vikings

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 17's Sunday Night Football, featuring a pivotal NFC North clash between the Packers and Vikings. Both teams are neck-and-neck in the standings, with identical 7-8 records, vying for a playoff spot in a tightly contested division, all while battling significant injuries. The Vikings will put their season’s hopes on the back of rookie quarterback Jaren Hall, who replaces backup Nick Mullens in an attempt to spark an offense forced to operate without its star tight end T.J. Hockenson for the rest of the season. Let’s take a look at the top plays, key trends, and import roster construction strategies to help take down this single-game DFS slate.

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Game Environment

^{_{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Packers (22) @ Vikings (23.5); Over/Under 45.5

The Packers have a pass rate and pace of play hovering around the middle of the league in neutral game scripts. However, their 16th-most pass plays per game, and slightly above-average pace masks how they try to play aggressively: Green Bay's offense perks up in the red zone. Jordan Love’s 5.9 red zone attempts per game ranks in the top five this season. His 4.6 deep targets per game also exceed the league average. Part of that has to do with a defense that has diminished throughout the season, forcing the Packers into many shootout environments, but the overall production has been fairly middle of the road. The Packers score 2.4 touchdowns per game, just slightly above average as NFL offenses go this season.

Minnesota mirrors Green Bay in record but—at least with their other three starting quarterbacks—diverges in their tactical approach. The Vikings are one of the most pass-heavy teams in neutral game scripts and tend to surpass the league average in pace of play as well. Despite a league-average score differential, the Vikings are fourth in pass plays per game and, when not accounting for game script, lead the league in overall pace of play. Even with a revamped defense that is finding its rhythm in the latter half of the season, the Vikings seem inclined to truly outscore opponents rather than shut them down. Still, the offensive firepower hasn’t led to as much scoring as we’d hoped - as the team averages just 2.3 offensive touchdowns per game, right at the NFL average. Against a Packers defense missing both starting cornerbacks, however, the Vikings' aerial assault, spearheaded by Justin Jefferson, could still prove formidable.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Jordan Love has had a notably efficient debut season as the Packers’ starting quarterback. He’s top 10 in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), in true drive success rate, and expected points added (EPA) per game. He’s 10th in Quarterback Rating (QBR) and 12th in adjusted air yards per attempt (AYA). He has the third-most passing touchdowns of any quarterback this season. Though he doesn’t rush often, he’s added three additional scores rushing and currently ranks eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. However, Love's challenge this Sunday is substantial. He faces a Minnesota defense that has undergone a significant transformation under Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. The Vikings rank ninth in rush defense DVOA and seventh in pass defense DVOA. They are top five in yards allowed per pass attempt and yards allowed per rush attempt. They’re also third-toughest in aFPA to the position.

Meanwhile, Jaren Hall, the next new quarterback for the Vikings, is poised for his second start after a concussion curtailed his debut in Week 6. In that brief initial outing, Hall exhibited serious potential against a porous Falcons’ defense, amassing 78 passing yards and an additional 11 rushing yards (translating to a quick 4.2 fantasy points) in less than one full drive of play. This performance offers a glimpse into the dual-threat dynamic Hall could bring to the Vikings' offense. Hall's inexperience will likely result in mistakes, making him a high-risk, high-reward play, but Hall’s ceiling score is approaching 30 fantasy points in our latest simulations. He has an unquestionably favorable matchup against the Packers, down both starting cornerbacks and who already rank 21st in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. The challenge for Hall will be to manage the game effectively and limit turnovers while maximizing his efficiency both through the air and on the ground.