Wild Card Monday Single-Game NFL DFS: Eagles and Buccaneers Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 15, 2024

Wild Card Monday Single-Game DFS: Eagles at Buccaneers

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Wild Card Monday Night Football, the finale of the Wild Card weekend featuring an exciting NFC battle between the Eagles and Buccaneers. The Eagles, finishing second in the NFC with an 11-6 record, have had a tumultuous end to their season, losing five of their last six games after a 10-1 start and now forced to try and win on the road without their top receiver. This downturn has placed coach Nick Sirianni's position under sudden scrutiny, and a loss here could signal a significant shake-up in the Philadelphia front office.

Despite their recent struggles, the Eagles are favored by three on the road. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are on the upswing of a roller-coaster season, making a dramatic turnaround from a 4-7 start, winning five of their last six games, and ultimately clinching the AFC South with a 9-8 record. With the pressure mounting on the Eagles, and a ton of drama surrounding this matchup, let’s dig into the top plays and key strategies for this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Eagles (23.5) @ Buccaneers (20.5); Over/Under 44

The Eagles have had a disastrous few weeks. The losing streak is one thing, but the injury to A.J. Brown could spell disaster for this team in freefall. Without Brown, the offensive approach may change, but typically, Philadelphia plays a bit more uptempo than the league average in neutral game scripts, with a slight inclination toward the run. They ranked just 21st in pass plays per game. Jalen Hurts averages 4.0 deep passes per game, again right below average. In the red zone and short yardage situations, Philadelphia still leans heavily on the run, frequently employing the "brotherly shove” on third and fourth downs with less than three yards to go. At the very least, Hurts is third in the NFL at 8.7 air yards per attempt. Despite recent struggles, the Eagles scored 2.7 offensive touchdowns per game, seventh-best in the league.

Tampa Bay leans towards a pass-heavy approach, though they align closely with the league average in terms of pace. They shift very quickly to a run-first strategy when leading, resulting in the 19th-most pass plays per game. Baker Mayfield attempts 4.6 deep passes per game, just above the league average, however, that hasn’t translated into consistently high scoring from the offense, with the Buccaneers ranking 19th in offensive touchdowns per game. Mayfield's reliance on his receivers for yards after catch is notable, with his corps averaging 3.5 yards after catch per reception.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Despite a rocky final month, Jalen Hurts' performance this season was still well average in most key quarterback metrics. He finished in the top 10 for both True Drive Success Rate and Expected Points Added (EPA) per game and was just above average in CPOE as well. However, he had five interceptions in the team's final four games, which is of great concern, even against a subpar Tampa Bay secondary. Hurts’ rushing ability, typically a significant facet of his play, has been limited to 35 yards or less in five of his last six games. Hurts' passing efficiency has also been on a downswing, as he’s averaged under 8.0 yards per attempt in eight consecutive weeks. Despite these challenges, Hurts' fantasy value remains high due to rushing, as he’s scored 0.9 rushing touchdowns per game. That helped Huirts finish 2023 as the second-highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy points per game.

Baker Mayfield ranked below average in nearly all key efficiency metrics: CPOE, True Drive Success Rate, and EPA per game, Mayfield was thirteenth in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYA) and sixteenth in Total Quarterback Rating (QBR). And yet, some advanced metrics point to a highly underrated season: he was first in PlayerProfiler's Production Premium, however, this likely has to do with his receivers’ impressive 3.5 yards after catch per reception. Mayfield averages fewer than four rushing attempts per game and finished the season at a middling 16.7 fantasy points per game this season.