Week 2 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Sep 14, 2023

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Handicapping Week 2 of the NFL season is always challenging. We've been eagerly anticipating meaningful football games for nearly eight months. After spending all that time forecasting and projecting team and player performances across the league, we've finally seen each team play, and it's difficult to put it into proper context.

What data is actionable, and what's one week of noise?

What is small-sample-variance, and what is a usage or situational trend that we need to get ahead of before the public does?

At its best, the transition between weeks 1 and 2 of the NFL season is a breeding zone for confirmation bias. At its worst, it's a chance to throw away all you thought you knew heading into kickoff last Sunday afternoon.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I believe to be the most significant inefficiency in the market: individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

All of our plays are released through our subscriber Discord. Go to #Role-Assign and opt into any of the different options to receive push notifications whenever a play is released by the 4for4 team. Beyond picks, our betting subscription includes tools that can't be found anywhere else.

Let's dig into Week 2's totals.

We are giving users 25% off our betting subscription with code “WEEK1”! You will get everything at 4for4, including our picks, player projections, tools, and in-depth write-ups for multiple sports. We have a multi-year track record of winning and are accessible for subscribers in our discord. Join with code “Week1” for 25% off here.

Get a full year of our subscription for as low as $10, or 2 months for $5! Find out how.