SharpClarke's Best Week 4 NFL Bet: TB @ NO

Sep 29, 2023

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, every team in the NFC South lost. That means the battle between the 2-1 New Orleans Saints and the 2-1 Tampa Bay Bucs carries some early-season weight in sorting out a potentially mediocre division. It might be more fun to talk about the massive matchup between the Bills and Dolphins, but sometimes, the more boring-seeming games can be where the best edges lie. Also, having a wager on a seemingly boring game can make it suddenly interesting. To that end, let's make this game interesting!

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Matchup Breakdown

TB offense v. NO defense

Everything came crashing back down to earth for the Bucs' offense last week. Perhaps we should have seen it coming. Baker Mayfield has tantalized bettors with good performances throughout his career when situations are favorable, particularly when playing with the lead. Against Minnesota and Chicago, Mayfield managed the game and sprinkled in enough big plays to look good and win the two games. He also avoided any turnovers. But those wins look less and less impressive as the season moves on, and the absolute beating they took at the hands of the Eagles confirmed two things: That Mayfield still cannot handle consistent pressure and that Todd Bowles and Dave Canales insist on a "get to third and manageable" approach (that's an exact quote!). Against this Saints' defense, that could be a major problem.

The Saints have shut down three offenses so far. The Titans scored 15 points on 11 drives, including one drive that started on the New Orleans 24-yard line. Then they kept the Panthers to 9 points before a garbage touchdown and two-point conversion. Last week, the Packers had zero points on their first seven drives before making some big plays late to win 18-17. In all, the Saints are 10th in EPA/play allowed but impressively 3rd in success rate allowed. This results from a few big plays late in these games. Granted, defensive metrics must be adjusted for opponent. But Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are not exactly a step up in competition for this defense. Their strong start should continue here. Even the one thing the Bucs have done well offensively - Mike Evans downfield - could be negated here by Marshon Lattimore, who consistently wins this matchup. I would be shocked if the Bucs move the ball effectively here.

NO offense v. TB defense

So what about Jameis Winston? Is he a downgrade from Derek Carr? In a vacuum, absolutely. Carr is a better quarterback. But circumstances here mitigate what could be a big downgrade. First, Carr has not played exceptionally well this season as he adjusts to a new team and offense. The Saints only scored 10 offensive points against the Packers, 20 against the Panthers, and 16 against the Titans. Most of this has been missed connections downfield and poor reactions under pressure by Carr. Winston has been with the team for much longer, knows the offense, and looked okay as a replacement last week. The surface-level narrative says they blew the game once Winston entered, but most of that was on defense. Winston actually engineered what should have been a game-winning drive, but the kicker missed the field goal. Second, this Saints' offense is all about diversity. Without Carr, I expect more Taysom Hill and a reliance on the newly-available Alvin Kamara. With Kamara, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Hill, and Rashid Shaheed, I expect them to make things relatively simple for Winston. He will just have to execute.

Carlton Davis has missed multiple games for Tampa Bay, and his replacement has been exploitable. The Eagles' passing game had struggled all season until Jalen Hurts started picking on Zyon McCollum. Davis is currently a game-time decision, but things got worse when Jamel Dean got hurt. And he has been ruled out. This will be a mismatch downfield for the Saints' receivers. I expect some stalled drives, running into the Bucs' defensive line, and wild misses downfield by Winston. But ultimately, if the Bucs' offense gives the Saints' offense enough chances, they will capitalize. They are simply too talented and too multiple. It may take a lot of drives to get there, but the Saints should put some points on the board.

Market Evaluation

This game opened around NO -3, and Saints money has been trickling in all week. The market has not committed to moving to a full -3.5, but I think it should (and I think it will). Some books are already there at the time of writing. Nobody has interest in betting Tampa Bay at +3, so books will need to offer +3.5 or higher to entice action on the underdog. Getting the hook over 3 in a low-scoring game can be enticing, which should limit this from moving much higher than the 3.5.

Best Bet

Once again, I agree with the market movement and believe there is still value on New Orleans. Playing at home in a very positive atmosphere against a quarterback who needs everything to go right in order to succeed, the Saints will likely be able to protect any lead they build. Their aggressive man defense and solid run-stopping ability should prevent the Bucs from getting much done, and with it all on Mayfield's shoulders, I feel comfortable backing the home favorite even if I have to lay the hook. With books split between a juiced NO -3 and friendly NO -3.5, I'd prefer NO -3 at -120 or better (currently available at Bet365 and Superbook), but NO -3.5 -105 available at BetMGM and -108 at DraftKings are also playable. I'm not afraid of the hook here.

NO -3 (-120) at Bet365