SharpClarke's Best Week 5 NFL Bet: DAL @ SF

Oct 06, 2023

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

So far, my weekly matchup articles have not been strong overall, going 1-3 on the season. Fortunately, they have not represented my overall performance. Hopefully, switching to a total play will turn things around this week. But even if you don't bet with me (or even fade me), I'll lay out my thinking on a bet I like for the Sunday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and Cowboys. Unlike last week's game, this one features two of the best teams in the NFL in a pivotal early NFC matchup, so there is plenty of intrigue here, even outside the bet.

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Matchup Breakdown

DAL offense v. SF defense

The biggest challenge the Cowboys' offense has faced this season has been injuries to the offensive line. Against the Giants, Jets, and Patriots, they played with a comfortable lead for most of the game, and the offense just went into cruise control fairly early on. There is something positive to say about the way they stayed in control of those games, but it doesn't say a whole lot about what to expect against a tough defense like San Francisco. The one time the Cowboys faced a deficit, they struggled against the Cardinals. But the offensive line looks a little healthier coming into this one, and may even be at full strength for the first time all season. They'll need everything they have up front against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.

The word I would use to describe the Cowboys' offense to date is "methodical." Dak Prescott is great at taking what the defense gives, avoiding mistakes, and setting up manageable third downs. Prescott has the lowest average depth of target this season of any starting quarterback (by a wide margin), and the Cowboys lead the NFL in both third-down conversions and third-down conversion percentage. But this methodical offense that notably lacks explosiveness has had trouble in the red zone. No team has had more red zone trips than the Cowboys, but they have only converted seven into touchdowns thanks to a 30th-ranked red zone conversion rate of 36.8%. And this has been against a fairly mediocre set of defenses. The 49ers cover the short area passing game better than anyone in the NFL and make things extremely difficult in the red zone. If the Cowboys have success here, it will likely be on long drives that involve several key third-down conversions. But even if they make it into the red zone, their struggles will likely continue near the goal line. They'll need to fire up some explosive plays to buck this trend. I don't trust Mike McCarthy to lean into that here.

SF offense v. DAL defense

The 49ers' offense has been an absolute truck this season. They have faced no real challenges. Even when they played against the Giants without Brandon Aiyuk, who is quietly an extremely important piece in this offense, they won comfortably. Kyle Shanahan is once again scheming up plays that specifically accentuate the immense talent of his offensive playmakers, and Brock Purdy is doing a fine job conducting the train. But they have also yet to face a really good defense. Even without Trevon Diggs, this Cowboys' defense is very good. And there is a reason why the people who watch film are lower on Purdy than the people who just look at the stats. Several high-leverage plays have really helped Purdy, including a tipped pass that somehow made it to a receiver for a first down and at least one long third-down conversion where he dropped it off to Christian McCaffery, who did all the work. Fading Purdy has been a loser's game because he is within this excellent offense and operates it at a high level. Opportunities for mistakes are limited, and he is accurate and makes excellent decisions.

But this will be the best defensive line the 49ers have seen all season. The 49ers thus far have been overcoming what projected to be a weakness at offensive line, but this might be their toughest test. The Cowboys line up Micah Parsons to attack an offense's weakness, and Dan Quinn loves to run stunts and delayed blitzes to free up unblocked rushers. This leads to a lower base rate of pressure, but those pressures are typically more meaningful, creating sacks and turnovers at a high rate. The 49ers will need to counter this by running a quick passing game and running the ball. Like the Cowboys, the 49ers are a methodical offense. Their success has come from dominating bad defenses, and I expect those explosive plays to come down against this defense. They should still move the ball, but it won't be as easy to get big chunks. Unlike the Cowboys, the 49ers have been successful in the red zone. But red zone success rate depends a lot on the quality of defense faced. The 49ers scored 5 of their 12 red zone touchdowns against the Cardinals, and have overall relied on the run to get in the end zone. If they don't win the offensive line battle, things could get much tougher in the short field.

Market Evaluation

The 49ers have been the better team thus far this season. They are laying -3.5 at home, and my simulations spit out a median outcome of around -3.4, so I see no edge on the side here. However, the total interests me. There has not been much market movement on this price, around 45 or 45.5, indicating interest on both sides of the number. I like betting into situations like that when I see an edge.

Best Bet

Betting totals in the NFL is not simply about how good the offenses and defenses are. Bettors consider things like explosive plays, pace, game flow, coaching aggressiveness, and so much more. Due to how these offenses play and what these defenses try to shut down, I expect long, methodical drives and red zone struggles. That is a recipe for an under when the number is this high. It is not a coincidence that both the Cowboys and 49ers are bottom-5 in the NFL in total drives. Last season, they played this type of game to a 19-12 finish in the playoffs. I expect something similar here. And if this is a lopsided game, it will be because one defense completely shuts down the opposing offense. Either way, I like the Under. But make sure you shop around. Circa and Pinnacle currently have 45.5 available, and the 45 matters.

Under 45 (-110) (FanDuel, DraftKings, Bet365, BetMGM, etc.)