Week 5 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 09, 2023

Monday Night Football Single-Game DFS: Packers vs. Raiders

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 5 Monday Night Football where the Green Bay Packers head to Sin City to square off against the Las Vegas Raiders. Green Bay sits at a 2-2 record, keen on catching up with the 4-1 Detroit Lions in the NFC North. The Raiders, on the other hand, are languishing at 1-3 and are already three games behind the division-leading Chiefs in the AFC West. With key players like Davante Adams not at full health, players like Christian Watson ramping up their usage post-injury, the unknown injury status of Aaron Jones, and Jimmy Garoppolo coming back from concussion protocol, this matchup is shaping up to be a chess game of strategies and unexpected plays. Let's dive into this one from a DFS perspective and find some creative ways to play this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Packers (+2, 21.75) @ Raiders (-2, 23.75); Over/Under 45.5

The Packers have a mediocre total of 21.75, while the Raiders, losers of three straight, have an implied total of 23.75. This gives the game an over/under of 45.5, suggesting a relatively low-scoring affair. However, there is some sneaky shootout potential in this one. The Packers have been almost exactly average in neutral passing and pace this season. They rank 19th in passes per game and eighth in seconds per play. The Raiders rank 18th in passes per game and 22nd in seconds per play. But Vegas has been playing faster and passing more than average in neutral game scripts. Especially if Adams is able to produce at his typical level, this could result in a game with more scoring than the betting lines might indicate.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Jimmy Garoppolo has had a rather uninspiring start to 2023 in his three healthy games. He ranks in the top 10 for completion percentage versus expectation but is below league average in more predictive metrics like xDrive Success and EPA per game. What's even more alarming is his Turnover-Worthy Play rate, which ranks in the bottom 10 according to PFF. And don't expect too many big plays either—he's bottom 10 in PFF's Big Time Throw rate this season. Garoppolo finds himself outside the top 15 quarterbacks in true completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, expected fantasy points per game, and actual fantasy points per game.

Packers' QB Jordan Love hasn't exactly been a beacon of efficiency but has shown flashes in an up-and-down start to 2023. He's right at the league average in xDrive Success and EPA per game. At the very least, Love has been going deep early and often. He's thrown 21 passes of 20-plus air yards, ranking third in the NFL. This strategy has resulted in a solid opportunity value, placing him sixth in expected fantasy points per game. However, it's also led to accuracy issues, with Love ranking in the bottom six in passes graded as interceptable by PlayerProfiler. His true completion percentage ranks outside the top 30 QBs. But he’s throwing and rushing more than league average inside the red zone which has buoyed him from a fantasy perspective. His receivers haven't helped him much either, dropping three passes and averaging 1.9 yards of separation per target, both bottom third in the league. The return (and ramp-up) WR Christian Watson should help this aspect.