Week 5 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
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Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.
There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.
I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance, and I believe our team's process is sound, and we can exploit this market every week of the season.
If you're waiting for this article to get some of my favorite tackle and assist bets of the week, you really need to get into the subscriber Discord. Even more than standard offensive props, these markets move quickly.
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Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets
Joshua Dobbs Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110, Bet365)
Josh Dobbs has been one of the biggest surprises through the season's first four months. He's been an above-average passer, he's protecting the football, and over the past three weeks, he's utilizing his legs to move the chains.
This season, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are the only quarterbacks with more designed rushing attempts than Josh Dobbs. Dobbs has 41, 55, and 48 rushing yards in his past three starts. He had 12 carries last week with a designed rush rate of 37% while also scrambling multiple times. I like attacking rushing quarterbacks against defenses that play a high rate of man-to-man defense, and the Bengals rank seventh in man rate through the first four weeks.
Alt-overs are also appealing here but are not out in the market as of this writing.
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Bet365
T.J. Edwards (CHI) Over 8.5 Tackles + assists (-115, Bet365)
T.J. Edwards fell short last week after the Broncos managed just 48 offensive snaps. The Commanders average 64 plays per game this season, which is 15th in the league. Edwards has my highest tackle and assist (TA) projection of the week at 10.7.
The Commanders also have a great scorekeeper for assists, granting 49.4 assists per game last season, which was the fifth most in the league last season. They were especially generous to road teams, with 27.6 assists per game, 5.7 more than the league average. The Commanders should have some positive game script here, with a higher run rate than what we've seen in most Washington games. Also, the Commanders throw over the middle of the field at the league's highest rate (29%), which bodes well for Edwards's opportunities in this matchup. I also like over 5.5 solo tackles, but I prefer taking the TA number for Edwards at this price and with the scorekeeper edge.
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Bet365
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I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.
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