Week 8 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 30, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Raiders vs. Lions

Kirthmon F. Dozier-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Week 8 Monday Night Football showdown breakdown, where the Las Vegas Raiders are set to face off against the Detroit Lions, who come into this game at 5-2, leading the NFC North, and looking to put a bad lass to the Ravens behind them. The Raiders, on the other hand, are at a crossroads with a 3-4 record, trying to claw their way up in the AFC West. At the very least, their starting quarterback is back in action. Let's delve into the game environment, quarterback metrics, and potential DFS strategies to give you the edge in this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Raiders (+7.5, 19.5) @ Lions (-7.5, 27); Over/Under 46.5

The Lions are entering this game as 7.5-point favorites with an implied total of 27, while the Raiders are at 19.5, setting the game's total at 46.5. Even without their starting running back David Montgomery, who is set to miss his third game this season, Detroit has been successful in controlling the pace of the game via their run game, ranking 25th overall in pace of play. They are sixth, however, in team pass plays per game, suggesting that while they may not be fast-paced, they are not afraid to put the game in Jared Goff's hands when necessary. The Lions tend to focus on short, methodical passes, reflected in Goff's average depth of target, which ranks lower than 29 other starting quarterbacks this season.

The Raiders operate at a league-average pace during neutral game scripts but are slightly more pass-heavy than the Lions in similar situations. Ranking 17th in team pass plays per game and averaging fewer than three passes of 20-plus air yards per game, the Raiders offense doesn't scream "explosive" by any stretch but could be pushed by a slightly more aggressive Lions squad. They are 20th in overall pace of play, indicating a more methodical preferred approach, not dissimilar to the Lions. With both teams not particularly known for tempo, the likelihood of a shootout is somewhat diminished despite the mid-40s game total, though it can never be ruled out entirely.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Jared Goff has been as accurate a passer as we’ve ever seen him this season, ranking in the top 10 in completion percentage vs expectation, and he leads the NFL in PlayerProfiler's Accuracy rating and True Completion Percentage. Despite a rough outing in Week 7 against Baltimore, Goff has had a tremendous first half of the season, with four games over 250 passing yards, and weekly 25-point upside. We can’t expect much of anything via his legs, as he’s averaging just 2.3 rushes per game, but a ceiling performance is still very much in play. The Raiders' defense is an enigma ranks a middling 21st in pass defense DVOA, but 7th toughest in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. This creates a neutral fantasy environment for Goff. His median projection is the third-highest on the slate.

Jimmy Garoppolo returns to the Raiders' lineup after missing a week due to a scary back injury in Week 6. And while the team much prefers him under-center to either backup quarterback, Garoppolo’s performance this season has been unremarkable, ranking outside the top 15 quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt (AYA), EPA, and expected fantasy points per game. With only two games of 300+ passing yards since the beginning of last year, and no three-touchdown games since 2020. Garoppolo's ceiling seems capped, especially against a Lions defense that ranks ninth-toughest in pass defense DVOA (though, interestingly, they’re ninth-easiest in aFPA to quarterbacks). Given the mediocre metrics and game environment, moderate fantasy scoring appears to be the most probable outcome for Garoppolo, making him a less appealing option at the Captain and MVP spots in DFS lineups.