10 IDP Risers & Fallers for 2024

Risers and Fallers can happen for numerous reasons. Camp reports, playing time projections, and overall production expectations can ebb and flow as the preseason progresses. With so many new head coaches and defensive coordinators in charge of new schemes around the league, it's easier to get a sense of what to expect now that we're only a few weeks out from Week 1.

A lot has happened around the league since I pushed out my positional tier articles a few weeks back, and this is a great place to capture some of those crucial changes as we enter the heart of fantasy draft season.

Those tier articles have writeups that are still of value, but if you're drafting in the coming weeks, the IDP rankings are where you'll want to go. Those will be updated daily moving forward, and I'm available for 4for4 subscribers in our Discord at any time.

IDP Risers

Jack Campbell

It's all coming together for Detroit's second-year linebacker Jack Campbell. Veteran MLB Alex Anzalone missed the voluntary portion of OTAs, which gave the Lions coaching staff a chance to see Campbell's ability as the green dot-wearing signal caller, and it looks like a role he's not giving back.

Linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard said, "he's exceeded my expectations, which were already high. I'm telling you it's at another level," Sheppard said. "This guy here's operating like an eight-year vet as far as making the calls, how he sets the standard of how we practice as a defense, and I think other guys are starting to look towards him now."

Campbell is an immensely talented player, which is why the Lions used a first-round pick on him back in the 2023 Draft. Though his rookie season had some ups and downs, he was a productive per-snap tackler (6.73 snaps per tackle), even though he sometimes played out of position with Anzalone (7.8 snaps per tackle) in the middle linebacker spot. With a year of experience under his belt and what appears to be an every-down role, Campbell's ceiling is massive in 2024.

Terrel Bernard

Another Matt Milano injury opens the door again for a mammoth Terrel Bernard season in Buffalo. The Bills used two linebackers on nearly 75% of their snaps last season, so Bernard (6.99 snaps per tackle in 2023) was likely set up for a productive campaign regardless, but with Milano sidelined, Bernard locks in a three-down role for Buffalo.

Bernard's 6.5 sacks and three interceptions led to a monster fantasy output last season, along with his 143 tackles, which led to him finishing as a top-10 fantasy linebacker. There's no reason Bernard shouldn't play 1,000+ snaps if he stays healthy, and while his sack and interception rates might not continue, he's still climbing up draft boards after the injury to Milano.

Jalen Pitre

The 2023 Houston Texans' season surpassed expectations...unless you play IDP fantasy and drafted Jalen Pitre. Despite excelling in his rookie season, Pitre struggled last season due to playing a new role in DeMeco Ryans's defense. Last season, he played deep on over 60% of his snaps, compared to his rookie season when he frequently lined up near the line of scrimmage.

It seems that Pitre is returning to a nickel slot role, as he has been hovering around the line for about 70% of his preseason snaps to date. While he still needs to work on his missed tackle rate, Pitre has the potential to produce elite-level production in this role, which we saw during his DB1 performance as a rookie. There is significant big-play potential with Pitre, and I am drafting him with confidence.

David Long Jr.

Former Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks signed with the Dolphins during free agency, and the general assumption at the time was Brooks was likely to be the team's top linebacker and play a near-every-down role. He's still expected to play a lot, but David Long will call the defense for new coordinator Anthony Weaver in Miami. This does not impact Jordyn Brooks all that much, but it does help the case for David Long, who's one of the best run-stuffing linebackers in the league and is significantly undervalued at his current ADP.

Long was such an emotional rollercoaster for IDP owners last season, so even though it's a new coordinator, I want to make sure this early report holds, but I'm willing to take Long above ADP before my league mates adjust. Long was fourth in PFF's tackles versus expected against the run last season and has consistently graded well when used as a pass rusher. He's still going later than he should be, but he's climbing up draft boards over the past two weeks.

Tyrel Dodson

Tyrel Dodson (7.42 snaps per tackle) had an impressive performance last year after Matt Milano's injury opened up an opportunity for increased snaps. He finished third among linebackers in PFF grade on the season. Dodson joined the Seahawks this offseason and has secured the LB1 position in Mike Macdonald's new defense. Alongside the often-injured Jerome Baker, they form the new linebacker tandem in Seattle, with rookie Tyrice Knight also in the mix. However, it seems that Dodson's role is the most secure.

During early camp, Dodson mentioned that he's taking over Bobby Wagner's role as the Seahawks' signal caller. With Baker dealing with a hamstring issue, Dodson faces little competition for every-down snaps. He has even been a team captain in preseason games and led the pregame pep talk for the team. Landing the top linebacker spot is significant because Seattle has the option to use all three safeties, which often results in a linebacker being subbed out. The LB2 spot in Seattle might not guarantee an 80-85% snap share, so securing the role of signal caller is a significant advantage for Dodson.

Fallers

Haason Reddick

This one's pretty straightforward. Haason Reddick wants a contract extension and is playing chicken with the Jets front office, refusing to report to training camp and demanding a trade if a contract agreement can't be reached. We're approaching an inflection point in this stand-off, and it's anyone's guess how it'll play out.

There's a fear of Reddick's holdout extending into the season or, in the best-case scenario, impacting the early part of his season as he transitions to a new team and system. EDGE rusher is one spot where the learning curve is minimal when changing teams, but fantasy gamers are a bit reluctant to pull the trigger on Reddick.

Kamren Curl

Kamren Curl went from a seventh-round draft pick and potential cut candidate to an IDP force with the Commanders in a matter of months. Curl's alignment during his time in the nation's capital was ideal for fantasy, but it appears that the new free-agent signee for the Los Angeles Rams is going to be used a bit differently.

So far, this preseason and in camp practices, new defensive coordinator Chris Shula has used Curl at free safety more than fantasy drafters would like. We've seen Quinten Lake in the nickel slot role with John Johnson playing at strong safety, rotating into the box while Curl has worked deep. This is not the alignment that we want for Curl, or any of our defensive backs for that matter. Curl is an excellent player and will likely still make an impact this season, but if this alignment holds up, Curl will continue to slide down draft boards.

Jordan Battle

Jordan Battle was one of the defensive backs that I was really excited about coming into the offseason, but he's on the outside looking in right now in Cincinnati. Free agent additions Vonn Bell and Geno Stone are set to start at safety for the Bengals, while Battle, who was highly productive after earning late-season starts in 2023, will be the next man up.

I'm still willing to take a shot on Battle late in deeper drafts because I think his upside is outstanding, and I'm willing to swing for the fences at defensive back because the opportunity cost for missing is so low relative to defensive line and linebacker.

Edgerrin Cooper

A lot of early drafts saw Packers rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper selected as if he's the clear LB2 in Green Bay. I was always hesitant to assume that would be the case on Day 1, and a hip injury sidelined Cooper for over three weeks until he returned to practice this week.

Incumbent Isaiah McDuffie made the most of his opportunity with Cooper out of the lineup and is the clear LB2 in Green Bay as the season begins. It's also important to note that McDuffie thrived under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley while the two were at Boston College, and McDuffie's familiarity with the system would undoubtedly give him a leg up on the incoming rookie class either way. I could see this being a frustrating timeshare later in the season, but Cooper's dipped outside the top 60 at linebacker.

Ifeatu Melifonwu

Just last week, I praised Ifeatu Melifonwu and made him the cover of my breakout defensive backs article. In that write-up, I mentioned that I'm not exactly sure where Melifonwu will play the majority of his snaps this season, and that's still true, but now I'm worried about his overall snap share heading into Week 1.

Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph were ahead of Melifonwu in last week's preseason game, who didn't pick up slot snaps in a positional swap with Branch as I anticipated. For now, we need to temper our expectations until the situation changes. I'd be surprised if he doesn't have an impactful role this season, but he doesn't need to be a draft-day target as of now.