Football never sleeps. The offseason quickly turned into free agency, which then turned into the draft. We are through the early parts of the offseason but now have a chance to look at team and player futures bets. We have been profitable in futures bets every year since we started, and in my opinion, is much softer than in-season props.
I understand not wanting to tie up too much money for the entire season but if you have the bankroll for it, it’s worth the squeeze. Last offseason I wrote about how season-long player props have gone under at a 60%+ clip for 3 consecutive years, even if you aren't getting the best number.
A lot of the hit rate for under has to do with the natural amount of outs an under provides compared to overs. A player can go under their total if they miss games due to an injury, they aren’t as efficient as originally projected due to a variety of factors, or another key player’s injury/lack of effectiveness drags down the offense as a whole. This is factored into the market more each season, but there are still edges periodically. Our first play of the offseason is unsurprisingly an under.
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Exact AFC North Finish 1-2: Bengals-Browns (+1000 CZRS, +900 DK, MGM)
I am higher on the Bengals and Browns this season relative to market and a bit lower on the Ravens. The market has the Ravens as the division favorites but if that's wrong, there are some big payouts by looking down the board. I touched on this more on Move The Line but the Ravens' defense was a pretty big surprise last season. They finished 2nd in EPA/Play and 6th in success rate but lost Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen, and Ronald Darby along with defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. The loss of Macdonald is massive as he was one of the most versatile defensive coordinators in the league with coverages. The offense also lost multiple starting offensive linemen. I still expect the Ravens to be good, but expect their defense to fall more into the fringe top-10 range instead of being an elite unit which puts more pressure on Lamar and the offense. This opens the door for both Cleveland and Cincinnati who won 11 and 9 games without their starting quarterbacks for much of last season. The Bengals specifically have an incredibly easy schedule this season and are favored in 14-of-17 games. It's not like they need the help but they get to play against the Patriots, Commanders, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Titans, and Broncos, 7 of the worst teams in the league.
Risk 0.1 units to win 1 unit
Jalen Hurts MVP: (16/1 MGM, 15/1 DK, 14/1 FD)
Since 2013 every MVP has been a QB and all but one team has won fewer than 12 games. Starting there can cross a lot of names off the list and hone in on on certain players. Jalen Hurts provides fantastic value in this market at 15/1. The Eagles got materially better as a team this offseason, drafting CBs Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell after signing Isaiah Rodgers to their secondary. Coaching wise they upgraded at both OC (Kellen Moore) and DC (Vic Fangio). Offensively, a lot is being made of Jason Kelce's retirement but they are still a top-3 offensive line with Cam Jurgens sliding in as his hand-picked (by Kelce) replacement. New OC Kellen Moore historically has played extremely fast and leveraged a ton of pre-snap motion. The Eagles were dead last in pre-snap motion last year and reportedly are already using that much more in training camp. With Saquon Barkley added to the backfield and the Eagles adding depth to their receiving room in the draft, the ceiling for this offense is extremely high. On top of this: They are favored in 13 games including 6 straight to start the season. They don't play a single team off a bye this season and end the season favored in five straight games. The Eagles will be squarely in play for the #1 seed in the NFC and Jalen Hurts will be squarely in the mix to win MVP.
Risk 0.2 units to win 3.2 units
Tony Pollard under 775.5 rushing yards ( -120 DK, MGM, fine to 725.5 at CZRS)
The Titans signed Pollard this offseason but have been talking about how they view Pollard and Tyjae Spears as 1A/1B:
“They’re both gonna play quite a bit of football for us, and I don’t view either one of them as a starter or a backup. They’re both starting players to me.”
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 23, 2024
They have also talked about Pollard's pass-catching a bunch which makes me think that we see a near-even split on early downs and maybe a lean toward Pollard on pass-catching downs. Their OL was upgraded but still isn't very good (We have them ranked 27th, ETR 24th) and Brian Callahan has mentioned they will want to pass the ball a ton.
They are underdogs in almost every game this season and should face minimal positive game script. We have Pollard projected for closer to 700 yards and that even may be too high if Spears plays a bigger role than anticipated, the OL isn't good, or they just get game-scripted out too quickly.
775 over a 17-game season translates to 45.5 yards per game. Considering the circumstances, that's awfully rich to consistently go over and play the entire season.
Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit
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